Banking What is going on with the Blue dollar? Why is it going down?

[Robert07]

Yes, it’s definitely a double-edged sword. On one hand, a stronger dollar can be good news for anyone who has savings in foreign currency or for tourists who want to visit, it suddenly makes the city feel “cheap” again compared to just a few months ago. That usually brings a boost to tourism, rentals, and some parts of the economy.

But on the other hand, for locals who earn in pesos, it’s tough. Prices often adjust quickly to the new exchange rate, while salaries don’t, which makes the cost of living even harder to keep up with. We’ve seen this cycle repeat many times, and while it may benefit foreigners in the short term, it also deepens inequality locally.

Hopefully, at some point there’s a more stable balance, where the economy is attractive for visitors but also fair and sustainable for the people who live here year-round.

 

[lemonade]

Looks like Argentina is losing the battle on the currency. Sinking fast before the elections.

Milei pulls out all stops in defence of fragile peso

After burning through billions of dollars in reserves, Argentina’s government is getting creative and finding new alternatives to defend the peso.

www.batimes.com.ar

 

[Finance Prof]

USA confirms they bought pesos today and the rate is dropping like a rock.

 

[Ron]

The dollar is back on the rise! After several days of going down, it finally climbed today, surpassing 1,400 ARS at Banco Nación. All this happened on a pretty volatile day, even though Scott Bessent confirmed that the U.S. sold dollars in the local market again.
Who else was following the daily drop and got surprised by today’s jump? 🤯💸

El dólar volvió a subir y superó los $1.400 en el Banco Nación pese a nuevas ventas del Tesoro de EEUU

El mercado cambiario cerró al alza en una jornada volátil y luego de que Scott Bessent confirmara que Estados Unidos compró nuevamente pesos en el mercado local este miércoles.

www.ambito.com

 

[Pink Panther]

The dollar is back on the rise! After several days of going down, it finally climbed today, surpassing 1,400 ARS at Banco Nación. All this happened on a pretty volatile day, even though Scott Bessent confirmed that the U.S. sold dollars in the local market again.
Who else was following the daily drop and got surprised by today’s jump? 🤯💸

El dólar volvió a subir y superó los $1.400 en el Banco Nación pese a nuevas ventas del Tesoro de EEUU

El mercado cambiario cerró al alza en una jornada volátil y luego de que Scott Bessent confirmara que Estados Unidos compró nuevamente pesos en el mercado local este miércoles.

www.ambito.com

Crazy to think the blue dollar went up even though Bessent said he would double the support. Everyone knows a devaluation is probably coming. That is all everyone is saying after the elections. No one knows for sure but I read some investment bank said if the election doesn't go good it could go to 2000 to $1 but I am not sure if the USA keeps buying pesos. I am not actually sure they bought so much. I think Trump was trying to scare people but locals don't trust politicians. They only trust the almighty dollar.

 

[BA Bound]

What is anyone's guess for how the blue dollar ends up for 2026?

 

[GlasgowJohn]

What is anyone's guess for how the blue dollar ends up for 2026?

Will all depend Milei and Caputo allow the USD to float freely.

They seem to be controlling all the USD rates to allow them to build up FX reserves cheaply, in my opinion

 

[MikeYoung]

Will all depend Milei and Caputo allow the USD to float freely.

They seem to be controlling all the USD rates to allow them to build up FX reserves cheaply, in my opinion

That is what it seems like. Things are expensive in dollar prices.

 

[GlasgowJohn]

And as the USD falls it becomes even more expensive.

 

[Edmonton]

And as the USD falls it becomes even more expensive.

USD seems to be falling all over. Not just in Argentina. Painful for expats in Argentina. It seems like these cycles just repeat. Probably will be another big blow up in a few years. Business sure doesn't seem like it's booming there. Actually the opposite.

 

[GlasgowJohn]

The only business thats eems to be doing well is shael oil extraction and mining.

I would love to hear of others.

 

[earlyretirement]

The only business thats eems to be doing well is shael oil extraction and mining.

I would love to hear of others.

Yes that is about the only industry amongst my friends that are doing well. Many of my friends own various businesses amongst various sectors and most of them are struggling now compared to before. Many of my friends or their spouses that worked for multi-national companies have gotten laid off as their companies have pulled out of Argentina as it's not viable for them.

Things in Argentina for as long as I've been doing business in Argentina (2002) has always been cyclical. Boom and bust cycles. I posted a while back that systemic change in Argentina in most of our lifetimes is probably impossible. Hopefully my kids see it but I doubt I will see it. The people that make the most money in Argentina are ones that can recognize these boom and bust cycles and capitalize on them.

I bought a ton of real estate for myself and my investors back after the corralito. Most people told me I was crazy. Then I ended up selling 95% of our entire portfolio in 2017/2018 when I said it peaked. That's exactly what happened. Then watched prices crash and then starting buying in mid 2023 again. Very good timing if I do say so myself. I got the exact bottom and prices have gone up drastically since then.

In Argentina it's all about the cycles. And even though tourism is down about 25% last year our rental properties were all full with high occupancy and decent prices. Just on cash flow double digit returns and add in the capital appreciation and it's been an amazing investment. And as my company forecasted, with the increase in utility and HOA rates many locals and foreigners have exited out of the STR (short-term rental) market and switched to long term. So it's been a perfect scenario for those that stayed in the high end Airbnb game.

Here is an example of one of the properties that I own. You can see for a local that electricity bill alone would be high and many got out of the STR's. In January, I had $3,500 USD in gross revenues in that property just for the month.

Condo in Buenos Aires · ★5.0 · 2 bedrooms · 3 beds · 2 baths

Skyline• 2 Balconies• 1Gig WiFi• King Bed •Palermo

www.airbnb.com

 

[JonJLA]

Yes that is about the only industry amongst my friends that are doing well. Many of my friends own various businesses amongst various sectors and most of them are struggling now compared to before. Many of my friends or their spouses that worked for multi-national companies have gotten laid off as their companies have pulled out of Argentina as it's not viable for them.

Things in Argentina for as long as I've been doing business in Argentina (2002) has always been cyclical. Boom and bust cycles. I posted a while back that systemic change in Argentina in most of our lifetimes is probably impossible. Hopefully my kids see it but I doubt I will see it. The people that make the most money in Argentina are ones that can recognize these boom and bust cycles and capitalize on them.

I bought a ton of real estate for myself and my investors back after the corralito. Most people told me I was crazy. Then I ended up selling 95% of our entire portfolio in 2017/2018 when I said it peaked. That's exactly what happened. Then watched prices crash and then starting buying in mid 2023 again. Very good timing if I do say so myself. I got the exact bottom and prices have gone up drastically since then.

In Argentina it's all about the cycles. And even though tourism is down about 25% last year our rental properties were all full with high occupancy and decent prices. Just on cash flow double digit returns and add in the capital appreciation and it's been an amazing investment. And as my company forecasted, with the increase in utility and HOA rates many locals and foreigners have exited out of the STR (short-term rental) market and switched to long term. So it's been a perfect scenario for those that stayed in the high end Airbnb game.

Here is an example of one of the properties that I own. You can see for a local that electricity bill alone would be high and many got out of the STR's. In January, I had $3,500 USD in gross revenues in that property just for the month.

Condo in Buenos Aires · ★5.0 · 2 bedrooms · 3 beds · 2 baths

Skyline• 2 Balconies• 1Gig WiFi• King Bed •Palermo

www.airbnb.com

You have had great timing since I've known you. Hard to believe it's been 20 years since I purchased my first apartment with you. You definitely have the Midas touch in Argentina. It is great to see that you started to buy more. Good timing catching the bottom in 2023. Did you sell all of your properties in 2017/2018 when you encouraged me to sell mine?

 

[Wally]

Yes that is about the only industry amongst my friends that are doing well. Many of my friends own various businesses amongst various sectors and most of them are struggling now compared to before. Many of my friends or their spouses that worked for multi-national companies have gotten laid off as their companies have pulled out of Argentina as it's not viable for them.

Things in Argentina for as long as I've been doing business in Argentina (2002) has always been cyclical. Boom and bust cycles. I posted a while back that systemic change in Argentina in most of our lifetimes is probably impossible. Hopefully my kids see it but I doubt I will see it. The people that make the most money in Argentina are ones that can recognize these boom and bust cycles and capitalize on them.

I bought a ton of real estate for myself and my investors back after the corralito. Most people told me I was crazy. Then I ended up selling 95% of our entire portfolio in 2017/2018 when I said it peaked. That's exactly what happened. Then watched prices crash and then starting buying in mid 2023 again. Very good timing if I do say so myself. I got the exact bottom and prices have gone up drastically since then.

In Argentina it's all about the cycles. And even though tourism is down about 25% last year our rental properties were all full with high occupancy and decent prices. Just on cash flow double digit returns and add in the capital appreciation and it's been an amazing investment. And as my company forecasted, with the increase in utility and HOA rates many locals and foreigners have exited out of the STR (short-term rental) market and switched to long term. So it's been a perfect scenario for those that stayed in the high end Airbnb game.

Here is an example of one of the properties that I own. You can see for a local that electricity bill alone would be high and many got out of the STR's. In January, I had $3,500 USD in gross revenues in that property just for the month.

Condo in Buenos Aires · ★5.0 · 2 bedrooms · 3 beds · 2 baths

Skyline• 2 Balconies• 1Gig WiFi• King Bed •Palermo

www.airbnb.com

Wow! That is a lot of income for a small property. Has it been busy all year round? Or just January?

 

[Johnny]

Wow! That is a lot of income for a small property. Has it been busy all year round? Or just January?

I own an apartment in the same building and mine has been renting over 20 days a month since I took possession last year. You can see my rental calendar. It is difficult for me to stay in it unless I block the calendar out ahead of time. The last trip I had to stay somewhere else because mine was already booked.

 

[earlyretirement]

Wow! That is a lot of income for a small property. Has it been busy all year round? Or just January?

Hi Wally. It's been busy since we finished them last January. I own a few units myself in that building and they have all been very busy. I also purchased several for investors and they are all amongst the top rentals in Buenos Aires. Really fabulous and all of them are very busy.