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New wave of shutdowns and layoffs puts Argentine industry on alert

This is a really interesting thread. I have a thirty thousand foot view of Argentina's economy from watching it over the years but zero on-the-ground knowledge, so I learned an awful lot here. It was inevitable that Argentina's economy would hit the wall, you just never knew when or how it would play out. I just hope they can hang on long enough to get to the other side of this. No doubt it is incredibly painful for locals losing their jobs and businesses.
But there in lies the question. What does the other side of this mean? It would take many terms of many Milei's to get everything you need to get done and I doubt Argentines have the patience for all of this. Someone posted this and it was excellent.

 
But there in lies the question. What does the other side of this mean? It would take many terms of many Milei's to get everything you need to get done and I doubt Argentines have the patience for all of this. Someone posted this and it was excellent.
It has mostly been boom and bust cycles. I remember when people thought Macri was the great hope. He chickened out. I wouldn't want to own a business in Argentina. The safest thing to me was to follow what all the other rich Argentines do and they just keep stacking real estate. I bought my first apartment in BA at the end of 2003. Then bought another one in 2004. It has paid for itself a few times over and I enjoy it when I go down to BA.

It has been almost recession proof and I have had rentals all throughout the time I have owned it. One of the same families that has managed it since I bought it still does and they own about 20 apartments in Buenos Aires in their family. I know of other families that do the same thing. That is the only comfortable investment I will make in Argentina. Unless the tax situation gets solved I can't imagine many companies will want to invest there.
 
@JonJLA , How are your expensas for your apartments?
I sold one of them at the peak in 2017 thanks to the suggestion of Mike. I didn't want to sell both of them. I'm paying about 425,000 ($300 dollars) per month for a studio apartment in Palermo Soho. It is full service with 24/7 security, pool and large gym. I heard that isn't bad. Some are paying almost $500 USD for similar set up.
 
@JonJLA , How are your expensas for your apartments?
I have a small studio apartment in Palermo Hollywood and it's up to 585,000 pesos per month. Which is about $415 USD per month which is really insane if you think about it. For comparison, I live in one of the most affluent communities in Southern California. All multi million dollar homes. Guard gated security with multiple entrances and guards at each entrance. For the monthly HOA which includes the security guards at the gate and roving patrol cars going around the community, landscaping of the entire 3800 acres with hiking trails, garbage pickup AND 1 Gig internet and cable TV it's $675 per month.

It's no wonder banks have come out with special loans just for people to take on debt to pay their HOA fees in Buenos Aires. Even nothing special properties with no amenities I'm paying about $350,000 pesos per month on in BA.
 
It has mostly been boom and bust cycles. I remember when people thought Macri was the great hope. He chickened out. I wouldn't want to own a business in Argentina. The safest thing to me was to follow what all the other rich Argentines do and they just keep stacking real estate. I bought my first apartment in BA at the end of 2003. Then bought another one in 2004. It has paid for itself a few times over and I enjoy it when I go down to BA.

It has been almost recession proof and I have had rentals all throughout the time I have owned it. One of the same families that has managed it since I bought it still does and they own about 20 apartments in Buenos Aires in their family. I know of other families that do the same thing. That is the only comfortable investment I will make in Argentina. Unless the tax situation gets solved I can't imagine many companies will want to invest there.
We kind of looked at it the same way Jon. To own stocks there long term you have to believe the turnaround is real, otherwise you need to be a market timer or good at picking winners and losers. Real estate though was cheap and it cash flowed, which is unique for a big cosmopolitan city, plus you'd always have a great place to visit. As long as BA remains safe & desirable I think it will be very good for us.
 
We kind of looked at it the same way Jon. To own stocks there long term you have to believe the turnaround is real, otherwise you need to be a market timer or good at picking winners and losers. Real estate though was cheap and it cash flowed, which is unique for a big cosmopolitan city, plus you'd always have a great place to visit. As long as BA remains safe & desirable I think it will be very good for us.
Exactly. I have owned Argentine stocks but I buy and sell because you have to take advantage of the ups and downs and the volatility. For real estate I mostly buy for the long term. I bought a bunch of properties in BA at the bottom after the corralito. At one time I personally owned 14 apartments personally in Buenos Aires. I sold all but 2 of them at the peak in 2017/2018. I couldn't bare to not have any properties there so I kept them and they both did well with rentals all the time I have owned them.

Now in 2023 I started buying again and building back up a portfolio. It's still cheap for the world calibre city that it is and they are making excellent cash flow. I bought and renovated an old PH house and just got it up and running and making insane cash flow. Will look for more properties like that.

@JonJLA thanks for trusting me so many years ago. You are one of my first clients. Glad that you still own your place. My best friend (a local in Argentina) and his family bought the 4 units in your building that I owned. I regret not keeping at least one of them. Just like you mentioned, all my wealthy Argentine friends own a lot of real estate in BA.

It's what I noticed once I started buying in 2002. All the politicians and wealthy mostly stick their money in real estate and do so in Buenos Aires. I think when I started buying Cristina and Nestor Kirchner only owned about 2 properties when I started. Look how many they ended up with! 🤣

My latest gem:

 
Exactly. I have owned Argentine stocks but I buy and sell because you have to take advantage of the ups and downs and the volatility. For real estate I mostly buy for the long term. I bought a bunch of properties in BA at the bottom after the corralito. At one time I personally owned 14 apartments personally in Buenos Aires. I sold all but 2 of them at the peak in 2017/2018. I couldn't bare to not have any properties there so I kept them and they both did well with rentals all the time I have owned them.

Now in 2023 I started buying again and building back up a portfolio. It's still cheap for the world calibre city that it is and they are making excellent cash flow. I bought and renovated an old PH house and just got it up and running and making insane cash flow. Will look for more properties like that.

@JonJLA thanks for trusting me so many years ago. You are one of my first clients. Glad that you still own your place. My best friend (a local in Argentina) and his family bought the 4 units in your building that I owned. I regret not keeping at least one of them. Just like you mentioned, all my wealthy Argentine friends own a lot of real estate in BA.

It's what I noticed once I started buying in 2002. All the politicians and wealthy mostly stick their money in real estate and do so in Buenos Aires. I think when I started buying Cristina and Nestor Kirchner only owned about 2 properties when I started. Look how many they ended up with! 🤣

My latest gem:

You did a terrific job Mike. I looked at some of the renovations photos your company posted on X. It really is remarkable. Congrats.
 
Real industrial policy, much like the models successfully utilized by Nordic countries or Germany, goes far beyond simple protectionism. It relies on a comprehensive toolkit designed to actively foster and protect high-wage export industries. This approach requires targeted tariffs, robust export support, and close coordination with industry leaders to identify their actual needs.

It also involves targeted education just like the dozen specialized two-year trade schools built during Cristina's administration along with low-interest loans, strategic government purchasing contracts, and pressure on foreign investors to collaborate with local businesses to keep value-added profits within the country.

This level of state involvement is standard practice among most industrialized nations. The USA for example, uses tariffs to support its sugar industry, stockpiles strategic materials, and historically subsidized power generation to essentially birth the commercial aluminum industry in the 1950s. The return on investment for these initial government subsidies is often massive. Entirely new, highly profitable private industries including satellite phones, GPS, lasers, CNC machine tools, and the internet simply would not exist today without that early public funding, both in the USA and abroad.

When applying this strategic logic to Argentina, the trade policy should be highly nuanced. Since the country lacks a domestic watch manufacturing sector, it makes perfect economic sense to encourage cheap imports with very low tariffs. But Argentina does possess strong, established local manufacturing in electrical transformers, footwear, kitchen stoves, and plumbing hardware. These are the specific sectors that should be shielded with higher import tariffs and bolstered by aggressive export support, IMHO.

For example, while North American plumbing manufacturing is largely monopolized by just a few companies like Kohler, Argentina produces excellent local ceramics, stainless steel, and fixtures (grifería). This specific industry is already cost-competitive and has immense export potential; it simply needs to be actively encouraged rather than being suffocated by how difficult and expensive it currently is to ship goods out of the country.
 
Indeed. Some businesses will restructure and find ways to compete, some will find themselves unable, and others will realize their business has no natural advantage in Argentina and closing is the only option. It is painful for companies and workers but it is great for consumers and taxpayers, and eventually capital and labor will get reallocated to better uses.

Traditional retail in Argentina will collapse overnight if Amazon is ever allowed to flourish there. I could not believe the prices of goods in Buenos Aires, there is no reason to buy anything if you can get it elsewhere.
Another victim with Mileiomics. Sad about this one. I furnished my pad with Peabody appliances. The quality isn't bad at all and more affordable than some of the other brands. Sounds like they just declared bankruptcy.

 
Another victim with Mileiomics. Sad about this one. I furnished my pad with Peabody appliances. The quality isn't bad at all and more affordable than some of the other brands. Sounds like they just declared bankruptcy.

All of these manufacturing plants in Argentina are folding. Especially the electronics.

 
Another victim with Mileiomics. Sad about this one. I furnished my pad with Peabody appliances. The quality isn't bad at all and more affordable than some of the other brands. Sounds like they just declared bankruptcy.

Peabody appliances are very good. I buy them and never have problems. I watched the CEO of Peabody on this Youtube and he seems like a smart guy. Korean immigrant that started the company from scratch.

 
Another victim with Mileiomics. Sad about this one. I furnished my pad with Peabody appliances. The quality isn't bad at all and more affordable than some of the other brands. Sounds like they just declared bankruptcy.

Well they will still be around. Companies file bankruptcy all the time. From speaking to people in BA it sounds like this is just a Concurso Preventivo Filing

  • Business as Usual: The filing is a restructuring tool, not a liquidation. The company intends to maintain normal operations, keep its doors open, and continue fulfilling its responsibilities to vendors and clients.
  • Strategic Debt Restructuring: Entering this legal process is likely a calculated financial move to freeze accumulating interest and renegotiate old, unfavorable debt (presumably high-interest peso loans) into much better long-term conditions.
  • The Open Secret of Hybrid Manufacturing: While Peabody manufactures large, bulky appliances in Argentina, they heavily rely on importing and white-labeling smaller electronics from the exact same Asian factories as their local competitors (Liliana, Gadnic, etc.). So all they were doing is importing Chinese stuff and just slapping a label on it.
  • Protectionist Hypocrisy: Publicly attacking the quality of Asian imports is merely a political tactic to justify high tariffs and protect local monopolies. In reality, Peabody relies on the same global supply chains that the rest of the world uses with great success.
  • Proven Global Competitiveness: The company's history of successfully exporting its products to the Americas and Europe directly contradicts the narrative that Argentine companies are incapable of competing in the global market.
 
The Open Secret of Hybrid Manufacturing: While Peabody manufactures large, bulky appliances in Argentina, they heavily rely on importing and white-labeling smaller electronics from the exact same Asian factories as their local competitors (Liliana, Gadnic, etc.). So all they were doing is importing Chinese stuff and just slapping a label on it.
This is exactly what so many people in Argentina are complaining about right now. If local factories are allowed to just white label and rebrand finished imports and sell them at an absurd markup in a captive market, then everyday consumers should absolutely have the right to import those same goods directly for cheaper from China.

The real issue is the token assembly loophole. You have companies importing 90% of a product, doing a bare minimum 10% of the assembly locally, and then slapping an "Industria Argentina" label on it just to justify those massive protectionist margins. This unfair advantage is exactly what set the stage for the current public backlash against domestic manufacturers.

Anyone who thinks Milei somehow "duped" the entire country into hating local industry really needs to look deeper into how this system actually works. People are just tired of the racket. Honestly, passing off marked-up Asian imports as local manufacturing destroys the goodwill and reputation of the Argentine companies that are actually trying to build quality goods from the ground up.

It really comes down to a simple choice. The government should either protect a full, genuine domestic assembly line until it can actually compete globally - gradually opening up the market once it does - or just let consumers freely import the products that local industry clearly has no intention of ever making from scratch.
 
This is exactly what so many people in Argentina are complaining about right now. If local factories are allowed to just white label and rebrand finished imports and sell them at an absurd markup in a captive market, then everyday consumers should absolutely have the right to import those same goods directly for cheaper from China.

The real issue is the token assembly loophole. You have companies importing 90% of a product, doing a bare minimum 10% of the assembly locally, and then slapping an "Industria Argentina" label on it just to justify those massive protectionist margins. This unfair advantage is exactly what set the stage for the current public backlash against domestic manufacturers.

Anyone who thinks Milei somehow "duped" the entire country into hating local industry really needs to look deeper into how this system actually works. People are just tired of the racket. Honestly, passing off marked-up Asian imports as local manufacturing destroys the goodwill and reputation of the Argentine companies that are actually trying to build quality goods from the ground up.

It really comes down to a simple choice. The government should either protect a full, genuine domestic assembly line until it can actually compete globally - gradually opening up the market once it does - or just let consumers freely import the products that local industry clearly has no intention of ever making from scratch.
It sounds like these companies will continue doing the fake "made in Argentina" thing. What I'm wondering is how they will compete with Chinese goods? I don't understand this? How would it be competitive for companies like Peabody to do this when they can just import the Chinese version made 100% in China without 10% assembly in Argentina? Can someone explain this?
 
It sounds like these companies will continue doing the fake "made in Argentina" thing. What I'm wondering is how they will compete with Chinese goods? I don't understand this? How would it be competitive for companies like Peabody to do this when they can just import the Chinese version made 100% in China without 10% assembly in Argentina? Can someone explain this?
You hit on the exact reason these companies are currently panicking, and it perfectly explains why Peabody is suddenly in bankruptcy protection.

The short answer is: without heavy government protection, they can NOT compete.

To understand why they did this in the first place, you have to look at the tax loopholes of the old system. Historically, if you imported a 100% finished blender from China, the Argentine government would slap massive import tariffs on it, most times doubling the final price. However, if you imported that exact same blender in 3 pieces and screwed them together in a local warehouse, it was legally classified as "Industria Argentina."

This allowed companies to import the parts almost tax-free, do the bare minimum 10% assembly, and then sell the product at a massive markup. They could get away with this because the exorbitant tariffs kept cheaper, fully finished foreign blenders out of the country. The 10% local assembly was never about efficiency or building a real domestic industry; it was literally just a toll they paid to unlock a tax break and keep the market captive.

Now, under the Milei administration, the rules of the game are changing. The government is slashing those protective tariffs and making it much easier for supermarkets and everyday consumers to import 100% finished goods directly to drive down inflation.

So, how do companies like Peabody compete now that anyone can just import the 100% Chinese version? They don't.

That is exactly why Peabody's CEO went on the radio claiming the government is committing "industricidio" (industry-killing) and why the company just filed for a concurso preventivo.

Their entire business model was built on exploiting a tax loophole that is rapidly disappearing. If they have to compete head-to-head on a level playing field with direct Asian imports, their "fake manufacturing" model instantly collapses. Adding that 10% local assembly with Argentine labor and logistics actually makes the product more expensive than just having the Chinese factory finish the job in the first place.
 
This is exactly what so many people in Argentina are complaining about right now. If local factories are allowed to just white label and rebrand finished imports and sell them at an absurd markup in a captive market, then everyday consumers should absolutely have the right to import those same goods directly for cheaper from China.

The real issue is the token assembly loophole. You have companies importing 90% of a product, doing a bare minimum 10% of the assembly locally, and then slapping an "Industria Argentina" label on it just to justify those massive protectionist margins. This unfair advantage is exactly what set the stage for the current public backlash against domestic manufacturers.

Anyone who thinks Milei somehow "duped" the entire country into hating local industry really needs to look deeper into how this system actually works. People are just tired of the racket. Honestly, passing off marked-up Asian imports as local manufacturing destroys the goodwill and reputation of the Argentine companies that are actually trying to build quality goods from the ground up.

It really comes down to a simple choice. The government should either protect a full, genuine domestic assembly line until it can actually compete globally - gradually opening up the market once it does - or just let consumers freely import the products that local industry clearly has no intention of ever making from scratch.
It is factually lazy to accuse Peabody of simply being a shell company that slaps new labels on finished Chinese imports. The company operates a massive facility in La Matanza that employed 325 workers. While some of you might not understand the exact nuances of their assembly line, it is entirely implausible and frankly insulting to suggest that a workforce of that size spends its entire day just swapping stickers on their items.

In practice, the reality on the ground speaks for itself: Peabody’s products are consistently a cut above the rest. There is virtually no overlap between what they produce and the generic, rebranded imports flooding the market. And it goes without saying they deliver high quality without demanding an absurd price premium, which is a stark contrast to the expensive, unreliable junk consumers have historically had to endure from legacy domestic brands like Patrick, BGH, Longvie, et al.

Dante Choi, the owner of Peabody (who famously built the company from the ground up in Fuerte Apache with the goal of becoming the "Apple of appliances"), recently called out the exact hypocrisy driving this crisis. He warned of an "avalanche of imports" entering the country with zero quality control and slashed tariffs.

The government has enthusiastically opened the floodgates for finished foreign goods, yet refuses to reduce the crippling tax burden -including severe VAT and provincial taxes on the imported components that local factories actually need to manufacture their own products. You cannot force local industry to compete globally while keeping their hands tied behind their backs with domestic taxes.

Some critics have absurdly tried to spin Peabody entering into a concurso preventivo (protective bankruptcy) as a positive strategic move or a simple "opportunity". It is not. It is a desperate survival mechanism for a suffocating company. Anyone framing this as a positive business tactic should remember how well that exact "opportunity" worked out for Garbarino, which ultimately ended in total liquidation.

Peabody is not an isolated failure; it is a symptom of a deliberate macroeconomic policy. Look at the wider devastation across the sector:

  • Whirlpool's Exit: In November 2025, Whirlpool completely shut down its state-of-the-art washing machine plant in Pilar—a facility that had just opened in 2022—firing 220 workers due to falling sales and import competition.
  • Mabe's Downsizing: Mabe is currently undergoing a massive "restructuring" just to stay afloat.
The numbers expose the stark reality of this deindustrialization:

  • Over the last two years, Argentina’s manufacturing sector collapsed by 7.9%.
  • Globally, this was the second-worst decline in the world, surpassed only by Hungary.
  • This is not a global trend; it is a localized policy failure, as during that exact same period, Brazil's industry expanded by 3.5%, Chile by 5.2%, Peru by 6.5%, and Uruguay by 3.7%.
This is Mileinomics working exactly as intended. The explicit objective is the erasure of the Argentine industrial base. As one ruling party senator openly admitted, the goal is to strip the economy down to raw extraction: agriculture, livestock, mining, and oil -or as he put it, relying solely on "What God gave us".

You can watch some interviews with Dante Choi here:


 
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