But honestly did Milei or Trump really have anything to do with this? Judges at this level don't get bribed. This isn't Argentina. If anything Kicillof and Cristina are the ones that look like geniuses. What am I missing?
No, as much as Milei wants to take credit it has nothing to do with Milei's relationship with Trump. My father was a Federal judge.
Correct. Milei had nothing to do with this.
Actually no this isn't true. Milei didn't have anything to do with this outcome. He wants people to think he does but that's not how it works. Trump either. People don't know how the court systems work here. These judges were Democrat placed. They are there for life. They certainly aren't going to listen to anything Trump or Milei says.
Agreed Mike. Argentina is becoming a roach motel, easy to get in but impossible to get out without chewing your arms and legs off.
This has always been the really terrible thing about Argentina. Even today people don't understand the CEPO is still in place for corporations.
How does Cristina and Axel not come off looking like geniuses? They are the only ones that maintained all along their position. Milei will say anything to any side and try to claim victory.
www.batimes.com.ar
One thing I respect about you Mike even though you deal with investments in Argentina you always tell it like it is. Argentina is a crazy place to do business.Actually no this isn't true. Milei didn't have anything to do with this outcome. He wants people to think he does but that's not how it works. Trump either. People don't know how the court systems work here. These judges were Democrat placed. They are there for life. They certainly aren't going to listen to anything Trump or Milei says.
That is what annoys me. You have everyone under the sun now trying to take credit for this. It boggles my mind that is the approach they are taking. Milei did a press conference last night trying to take credit. People wonder why there is net negative foreign investments under Milei.
Argentina records negative foreign investment for the first time in over two decades - Buenos Aires Herald
A top Canadian fertilizer company is the latest to leave Argentina, amid a wave of foreign companies selling their operations to local businessesbuenosairesherald.com
Even the judge ruling in favor had this warning:
US Circuit Judge Denny Chin authored a scathing assessment of Argentina's behavior, even while ruling in their favor on a technicality of Argentine law.
Argentina's "refusal to honor those protections two decades after making them cast doubt on the security of foreign investment in the country more broadly."
The court explicitly noted that Argentina had made a "knowing and flagrant violation of the promises it made to foreign investors," and pointed out that Argentina originally made those bylaws specifically to assure US investors that their capital would be protected. The fact that the court acknowledged Argentina broke its promise -but ruled they couldn't be punished for it under local law -is exactly what terrifies foreign capital and probably what will keep much FDI on the sidelines.
Industry publications covering the intersection of law and energy investment, such as Discovery Alert and Investment Arbitration Reporter, published analyses today breaking down the new risk matrix for energy companies.
They highlight that this ruling fundamentally alters how sovereign risk is calculated. Because a $16.1 billion expropriation liability was erased on an appellate reinterpretation of local law, legal experts are advising that:
Foreign companies can no longer rely on standard corporate bylaws when dealing with sovereigns.
Energy companies will now have to employ extreme "multiple jurisdiction incorporation strategies" and "treaty shopping" to try and artificially shield their assets from future expropriations.
The sentiment among institutional investors is highly negative regarding the precedent this sets. As one market commentator on Seeking Alpha bluntly summarized the mood on Wall Street today:
"Terrible, terrible decision by the court. Green light for government nationalizations going forward for any and all US traded companies!"
While President Javier Milei is publicly celebrating this as the "greatest judicial victory in national history" because it saves the country from immediate bankruptcy, the global financial press and the US justice system itself is openly warning that this "knowing and flagrant violation" serves as a massive red flag for anyone looking to park long-term capital in Argentina.
This is the first thing I thought of when they were all scrambling to take credit. From everything I am seeing things going from bad to worse for the administration. Sure high oil prices will help long term for Argentina but they are talking about $200 barrel oil. I would think this will crush Argentina short-term before the next election.Actually no this isn't true. Milei didn't have anything to do with this outcome. He wants people to think he does but that's not how it works. Trump either. People don't know how the court systems work here. These judges were Democrat placed. They are there for life. They certainly aren't going to listen to anything Trump or Milei says.
That is what annoys me. You have everyone under the sun now trying to take credit for this. It boggles my mind that is the approach they are taking. Milei did a press conference last night trying to take credit. People wonder why there is net negative foreign investments under Milei.
Argentina records negative foreign investment for the first time in over two decades - Buenos Aires Herald
A top Canadian fertilizer company is the latest to leave Argentina, amid a wave of foreign companies selling their operations to local businessesbuenosairesherald.com
Even the judge ruling in favor had this warning:
US Circuit Judge Denny Chin authored a scathing assessment of Argentina's behavior, even while ruling in their favor on a technicality of Argentine law.
Argentina's "refusal to honor those protections two decades after making them cast doubt on the security of foreign investment in the country more broadly."
The court explicitly noted that Argentina had made a "knowing and flagrant violation of the promises it made to foreign investors," and pointed out that Argentina originally made those bylaws specifically to assure US investors that their capital would be protected. The fact that the court acknowledged Argentina broke its promise -but ruled they couldn't be punished for it under local law -is exactly what terrifies foreign capital and probably what will keep much FDI on the sidelines.
Industry publications covering the intersection of law and energy investment, such as Discovery Alert and Investment Arbitration Reporter, published analyses today breaking down the new risk matrix for energy companies.
They highlight that this ruling fundamentally alters how sovereign risk is calculated. Because a $16.1 billion expropriation liability was erased on an appellate reinterpretation of local law, legal experts are advising that:
Foreign companies can no longer rely on standard corporate bylaws when dealing with sovereigns.
Energy companies will now have to employ extreme "multiple jurisdiction incorporation strategies" and "treaty shopping" to try and artificially shield their assets from future expropriations.
The sentiment among institutional investors is highly negative regarding the precedent this sets. As one market commentator on Seeking Alpha bluntly summarized the mood on Wall Street today:
"Terrible, terrible decision by the court. Green light for government nationalizations going forward for any and all US traded companies!"
While President Javier Milei is publicly celebrating this as the "greatest judicial victory in national history" because it saves the country from immediate bankruptcy, the global financial press and the US justice system itself is openly warning that this "knowing and flagrant violation" serves as a massive red flag for anyone looking to park long-term capital in Argentina.
Actually no this isn't true. Milei didn't have anything to do with this outcome. He wants people to think he does but that's not how it works. Trump either. People don't know how the court systems work here. These judges were Democrat placed. They are there for life. They certainly aren't going to listen to anything Trump or Milei says.
