Any guesses where we think the Blue dollar exchange rate will head in 2024?

[All the Answers]

I don't see prices ever coming down globally. After COVID we saw this huge inflation and I think overall prices just keep going up. I don't see this changing over the long term. A buck isn't a buck and gets worse in inflation adjusted dollars every year.

Let's think about Argentina and Uruguay's future prices. If I'm a betting man, I say Argentina becomes like Uruguay. 3 or 4 times the cost of everything in dollars.

The idea is that Argentina might copy Uruguay's way of dealing with money without actually using dollars. Imagine getting dollars easily from ATMs without any fuss.

They say both countries have similar shipping costs and spend about the same on imports. Even with fancy things like Chinese car factories and posh hotels, they hope Argentina can be like Uruguay and lower its prices.

The big idea is that if Argentina follows the "free market" rules. But some people doubt it, saying it might make more people poor instead. If the same thing happens as what is happening in Uruguay then our poverty rate would go up 100%.

Uruguayans share that only rich tourists can easily afford things there, and locals struggle with low wages. So, the big question is whether Argentina can really be four times cheaper than Uruguay. We'll have to see how things play out in these South American countries.

 

[Wally]

I don't see prices ever coming down globally. After COVID we saw this huge inflation and I think overall prices just keep going up. I don't see this changing over the long term. A buck isn't a buck and gets worse in inflation adjusted dollars every year.

Let's think about Argentina and Uruguay's future prices. If I'm a betting man, I say Argentina becomes like Uruguay. 3 or 4 times the cost of everything in dollars.

The idea is that Argentina might copy Uruguay's way of dealing with money without actually using dollars. Imagine getting dollars easily from ATMs without any fuss.

They say both countries have similar shipping costs and spend about the same on imports. Even with fancy things like Chinese car factories and posh hotels, they hope Argentina can be like Uruguay and lower its prices.

The big idea is that if Argentina follows the "free market" rules. But some people doubt it, saying it might make more people poor instead. If the same thing happens as what is happening in Uruguay then our poverty rate would go up 100%.

Uruguayans share that only rich tourists can easily afford things there, and locals struggle with low wages. So, the big question is whether Argentina can really be four times cheaper than Uruguay. We'll have to see how things play out in these South American countries.

So inquiring minds want to know @All the Answers, will you stay in Argentina if everything costs 3 or 4 times the price vs. today?

 

[All the Answers]

So inquiring minds want to know @All the Answers, will you stay in Argentina if everything costs 3 or 4 times the price vs. today?

I will probably never leave Buenos Aires. I was very very very very very lucky that I bought an apartment in Recoleta after the corralito 20 years ago. With HOA, electricity, gas, water, cable, internet and property taxes I pay less than $2,800 US dollar per YEAR. My expenses are very low as we don't have a doorman. We fired him many years ago. We took a one time hit to pay him his retirement required. He worked in the building something like 25 years but he was horrible. Then we caught him stealing so even though we fired him, we still had to pay him several years worth of his salary.

If I didn't buy back then I probably would be singing a different tune. Even now property prices are fairly reasonable. I almost sold my property in 2018 when values went up but I asked myself where I would have realistically have gone. I couldn't find any place that had the same quality of life.

Sure there is a bunch of BS to deal with her but it's worth it. I like the beach and would like to get a place in Brazil too or maybe Colombia but I don't like the food in Colombia but the people are very friendly. I can fit in as a local anywhere in Latin America.

Even if posts go up 4X my cost of living is low here since I own my own place and mostly cook and don't go out to eat at restaurants too much. I am 100% sure utilities will go up but I don't use much electricity or gas at all. Healthcare is one of my biggest expenses but even if that goes up 4X which is doubtful. I can still easily manage things. I can't find a better cost of living. In the USA it has gotten too expensive.

 

[RN in BA]

I don't see prices ever coming down globally. After COVID we saw this huge inflation and I think overall prices just keep going up. I don't see this changing over the long term. A buck isn't a buck and gets worse in inflation adjusted dollars every year.

Let's think about Argentina and Uruguay's future prices. If I'm a betting man, I say Argentina becomes like Uruguay. 3 or 4 times the cost of everything in dollars.

The idea is that Argentina might copy Uruguay's way of dealing with money without actually using dollars. Imagine getting dollars easily from ATMs without any fuss.

They say both countries have similar shipping costs and spend about the same on imports. Even with fancy things like Chinese car factories and posh hotels, they hope Argentina can be like Uruguay and lower its prices.

The big idea is that if Argentina follows the "free market" rules. But some people doubt it, saying it might make more people poor instead. If the same thing happens as what is happening in Uruguay then our poverty rate would go up 100%.

Uruguayans share that only rich tourists can easily afford things there, and locals struggle with low wages. So, the big question is whether Argentina can really be four times cheaper than Uruguay. We'll have to see how things play out in these South American countries.

How does Uruguay do it? I am confused. If it's so expensive there how do the locals afford things? Last time I looked Uruguay has a very low poverty rate. I visited Colonia and Montevideo while I was in town and everything was clean and economy looks normal. How does their poverty rate stay so low there?

 

[Betsy Ross]

How does Uruguay do it? I am confused. If it's so expensive there how do the locals afford things? Last time I looked Uruguay has a very low poverty rate. I visited Colonia and Montevideo while I was in town and everything was clean and economy looks normal. How does their poverty rate stay so low there?

Uruguay and Argentina are quite different in many ways. Argentina is bigger, has more economic, industrial, educational, and cultural diversity, along with greater potential in terms of environment, natural resources, and human resources. It boasts what many consider the best capital city in South America and has more regional and global influence, showing a lot of overall potential. Instead of comparing it to Uruguay, which is smaller, some folks think Ecuador makes for a more reasonable comparison. While Ecuador might not be perfect, it's often said that having a stable currency has improved life there.

 

[Tommy]

So inquiring minds want to know @All the Answers, will you stay in Argentina if everything costs 3 or 4 times the price vs. today?

Oh, definitely me! I'm like the colectivo's biggest fan, strolling around like I'm on a mission, whipping up masterpieces in my kitchen, and proudly ruling my own kingdom. Even if they jacked up taxes and utilities to, like, four times the current rates, it'd still be a steal compared to what I'm shelling out for my pad back in the US.

Living the dream on my Social Security, not earning in pesos, and let me tell you, I'm practically the financial wizard in comparison to my buddies here. Take the university professors, for example, still raking in a cool $485 USD when the official rate was from like three months ago. Bless their hearts!

 

[Under the Radar]

So, with Macri, they hit us with the frozen exchange rate, and voila, we got ourselves some inflation in good old USD. Like, who knew freezing things could make them inflate? It's probably the same old story now. Classic Argentina, right?

 

[Canada Goose]

So, with Macri, they hit us with the frozen exchange rate, and voila, we got ourselves some inflation in good old USD. Like, who knew freezing things could make them inflate? It's probably the same old story now. Classic Argentina, right?

Oh boy, you won't believe it! Back then, it was Menem's second go-around in the late 90s (1995-1999). Buenos Aires was strutting around like it owned the place, proudly flaunting its title as the most expensive capital in the whole wide world! Talk about living large and in charge! Those were the days, my friend, when the peso was flexing its muscles and the city was giving New York and Paris a run for their money. Good times, good times – until reality crashed the party!

I remember looking about visiting Buenos Aires but it was more expensive than Paris!

 

[Wally]

Oh boy, you won't believe it! Back then, it was Menem's second go-around in the late 90s (1995-1999). Buenos Aires was strutting around like it owned the place, proudly flaunting its title as the most expensive capital in the whole wide world! Talk about living large and in charge! Those were the days, my friend, when the peso was flexing its muscles and the city was giving New York and Paris a run for their money. Good times, good times – until reality crashed the party!

I remember looking about visiting Buenos Aires but it was more expensive than Paris!

Oh, brace yourself for the grand comeback tour – not! Apparently, returning to the good old days when Buenos Aires fancied itself as the priciest capital requires a bit more than just wishful thinking. You see, back in that era, we were riding high on the waves of colossal capital inflows. Now, to even dream about that level of luxury, we'd need a bunch of stable years – you know, the kind where the economic rollercoaster takes a break.

But hey, let's not get too carried away. Meaningful foreign direct investment? Oh no, not the foreigners buying fancy apartments kind – we're talking sponsors rolling up their sleeves to build mines and colossal oil and gas projects, a real blockbuster! Trust me, after Argentina's track record of instability and a bit of appropriation drama, winning back that kind of trust is a walk in the park. Easy peasy!

 

[Avocado]

Oh, my, the uncertainty is keeping me up at night! You Milei supporters have this unwavering faith in Milei's grand plan to rescue the Argentine people, but what if things take a nosedive? What would have to happen for you to think, "Uh-oh, maybe Milei is not such a great idea after all"?

Now, everyone's bracing themselves for a whopping 6-12 months of suffering – sounds like a picnic, doesn't it? But hold on, does that mean it's destined for failure, or is that just the appetizer? How much longer does the Milei fan club endure the agony before they start questioning the whole shebang? The full four years? When will you all admit you made a mistake? What will it take?

Picture this: inflation takes a chill pill, the nation shakes off its debt like a bad habit, foreign investors are popping up like mushrooms after rain, and corporations are swimming in profits. Sounds like a victory parade, right? But wait for it – what if the poverty rate decides to play the stubborn guest who just won't leave? Would that still be a win for the Milei enthusiasts, or are we in for a plot twist that even they didn't foresee? The suspense is killing me!

 

[Flamingo]

Ah, the delicate dance with poverty – Milei's current gig makes it sound like he's juggling with fire, doesn't it? Shades of poverty, my friend, like a palette of struggles that no government can take lightly. Milei, though, seems to be tap-dancing on the edge of not taking the matter too seriously.

Now, we're used to the idea of folks missing out on some luxury – it's practically a national sport. But when basics become a luxury, that's a whole new ball game. It's like saying, "Sure, you used to have a decent lifestyle, but now let's see if you can pull off surviving on air and dreams." That's not the Argentine dream anyone signed up for.

Imagine this: someone earning 1000 bucks in 2015 is now flexing their financial muscles at a whopping 300 bucks. Relative poverty, they call it. But strip away those subsidies for transportation and energy, and voila – welcome to absolute poverty, where paying bills and rent becomes a financial Rubik's Cube.

Now, Milei's prescription might sound like chemo for the economy, but hold on – what if the cure ends up killing the patient? You can't just shout "better future" to someone with a growling stomach. Hunger needs more than promises; it needs a force to reckon with. And that, my friend, is where Milei might need to up his game. Because, let's be real, a hungry mob doesn't care about your economic theories – they just want something in their stomachs.

In my humble opinion, Milei might want to ease up on the economic chemotherapy. Sure, he's already pulled the trigger on devaluation, but why not take a breather? The world's inflation rollercoaster is slowing down, Argentina's got a taste of normalcy in agriculture and energy – let's see how the cards play out before going all-in.

The free market, as romantic as it sounds, is like a rebellious teenager – you can't let it run completely wild. There are valves you open, and others you keep closed until the time is right. Milei's rapid-fire approach might be sending shockwaves to the external world, painting him as the wild card in the global economic poker game.

And don't get me started on subsidies – they're like that friend who promises to pay you back but never does. In Argentina, they've been a bit like a twisted game of Robin Hood, robbing from the poor to give to the not-so-poor. It's like saying, "Hey, let's distort both demand and supply, and make sure the non-poor get the biggest slice of the subsidy cake." Classic Argentina.

So, here's the deal – saying "time will tell" and crossing fingers won't cut it. The poorest folks need protection, and they need it yesterday. They didn't cook up this mess, but they're the ones feeling the heat the most. As an old saying goes, "Though subsidies can be a tool to protect the poor, in Argentina, they led to distortions and a large share have been absorbed by upper classes and non-residential consumers." Gold advice, my friend, pure gold. Let's just hope Milei takes a moment to listen before the economic opera turns into a tragic comedy.

 

[Colin]

Looks like the blue dollar is heading back up.

Dólar hoy, cotización del dólar, precio del dólar, dólar blue, precio histórico del dólar, valor del UVA | Dolarito.ar

Seguí la cotización del dólar minuto a minuto, compara cotizaciones, visualiza los valores históricos, conocé el precio del dólar, evolución del valor UVA

www.dolarito.ar

 

[earlyretirement]

Looks like the blue dollar is heading back up.

Dólar hoy, cotización del dólar, precio del dólar, dólar blue, precio histórico del dólar, valor del UVA | Dolarito.ar

Seguí la cotización del dólar minuto a minuto, compara cotizaciones, visualiza los valores históricos, conocé el precio del dólar, evolución del valor UVA

www.dolarito.ar

Yes it's heading back up. I've been saying for a while now that there is usually more demand for pesos at the end of the year. I'd have to believe the blue dollar will head up now we are past the holidays and probably will speed up the difference between the official dollar. I've said from the very beginning that no way dollarization was happening any time soon. If you look at my past posts I have always maintained this would be impossible for Milei.

Dólar hoy: el blue subió y superó la barrera de los $1100

El tipo de cambio paralelo avanzó en el microcentro porteño; el contado con liquidación retrocedió por primera vez en siete ruedas

www.lanacion.com.ar

 

[Finance Prof]

Yes it's heading back up. I've been saying for a while now that there is usually more demand for pesos at the end of the year. I'd have to believe the blue dollar will head up now we are past the holidays and probably will speed up the difference between the official dollar. I've said from the very beginning that no way dollarization was happening any time soon. If you look at my past posts I have always maintained this would be impossible for Milei.

Dólar hoy: el blue subió y superó la barrera de los $1100

El tipo de cambio paralelo avanzó en el microcentro porteño; el contado con liquidación retrocedió por primera vez en siete ruedas

www.lanacion.com.ar

I totally agree with you. I'm not sure how anyone actually believed that dollarization was possible in the near term. Even in the far term it's not going to be easy. Who knows how many of the DNU's will be challenged. Supreme Court looks like it's already challenging many. Most likely by March the spread between the official and blue will be 50% gap. Maybe by the middle of the year in July we may see 100% difference and who knows by the end of this year. Once again, those that have dollars will be in a better position.

 

[Larry]

I totally agree with you. I'm not sure how anyone actually believed that dollarization was possible in the near term. Even in the far term it's not going to be easy. Who knows how many of the DNU's will be challenged. Supreme Court looks like it's already challenging many. Most likely by March the spread between the official and blue will be 50% gap. Maybe by the middle of the year in July we may see 100% difference and who knows by the end of this year. Once again, those that have dollars will be in a better position.

I don't believe this will happen. Milei is hell bent on eliminating this double exchange rate between white and blue. I don't know if he will devalue the official rate again? As everyone knows, Milei is making life more difficult for the everyday Argentines. Life is very expensive now.

 

[Faith]

Yes it's heading back up. I've been saying for a while now that there is usually more demand for pesos at the end of the year. I'd have to believe the blue dollar will head up now we are past the holidays and probably will speed up the difference between the official dollar. I've said from the very beginning that no way dollarization was happening any time soon. If you look at my past posts I have always maintained this would be impossible for Milei.

Dólar hoy: el blue subió y superó la barrera de los $1100

El tipo de cambio paralelo avanzó en el microcentro porteño; el contado con liquidación retrocedió por primera vez en siete ruedas

www.lanacion.com.ar

My husband said the same thing. He said after Christmas and NYE it would start to go back up.

My savings and income are all in USD so it was painful the past few weeks when prices were going up and blue dollar was staying the same but feels good to go over 1,000 on MEP for my credit cards spending and also sending in Western Union today was 1,901.50 today.

 

[Canada Goose]

Looks like blue heading back up as some have predicted. Milei seems to want to fix things but honestly if Argentina keeps printing money which looks like it must do, then the blue dollar will keep going up. It is going to be a really really tough job given the situation he inherited. I'm not sure how high it will go but looks like the ugly trend will continue. (I guess good for expats with US Dollars).

 

[All the Answers]

Since 2005, I've split my time between Argentina. The inflationary trend in the country is typically influenced by fluctuations in the exchange rate, which can be attributed to global petro-political events, climate factors, or election outcomes impacting the dollar. However, the current scenario presents a unique situation where inflation persists even as the dollar exchange rate remains relatively stable. In essence, prices are escalating at a rapid pace in both dollar and peso terms, indicating that the inflation is more domestically driven within Argentina rather than being tied to external fluctuations in the dollar.

 

[Soytoy]

I'm not an expert, but here's a simplified take on it. This happens often around this time of year, especially before labor negotiations. This year, though, things are more challenging due to recent changes. A lot is happening, but in general, businesses are trying to reduce losses both upfront and in the long run.

There used to be too many pesos circulating, and the extra money went into dollars. With Milei's intervention, businesses found it acceptable to double prices, leading to inflation. However, fewer people can afford to buy dollars now because they're barely making ends meet. Many are selling their saved dollars to maintain their lifestyle, putting them back into the system. Right now, dollars aren't as in demand as before because it takes twice the amount of pesos to live.

A significant amount of pesos is now going into various businesses, not just those dealing with currency exchange. Some of this money will be needed to pay higher salaries in the coming months. It's unclear how much the adjustment will be, but I've heard that pharmacies might go up by 90% or more, and I don't expect anything less than 60%. When these higher salaries enter the market, which is already slow, I expect prices to either drop or remain stable. People will then have more purchasing power to buy dollars again.

All markets, including the USD, are affected. Milei probably wanted to secure some surplus before having to print more money for salary and pension adjustments, like businesses are doing. Maybe it worked to some extent, but not enough to prevent another three-digit inflation with the influx of new pesos.

We've been observing this inflation cycle for a decade. It's not just a country's deficit causing inflation; there's also a psychological effect. If Milei didn't try to control the market as previous governments did, people would have to become extremely poor for the plan to succeed.

I was paid in pesos in 2012, and I received a 30% adjustment in February. At that time, I thought I shouldn't get it because it perpetuates a system that fuels inflation. Businesses raise prices in December, January, and February, then labor negotiations increase salaries, and the cycle repeats. To truly break the cycle, you need to cut both simultaneously, but this isn't a very capitalistic approach. In reality, countries with high inflation, without foreign aid, have to break the cycle through unconventional means.

 

[Flamingo]

Since 2005, I've split my time between Argentina. The inflationary trend in the country is typically influenced by fluctuations in the exchange rate, which can be attributed to global petro-political events, climate factors, or election outcomes impacting the dollar. However, the current scenario presents a unique situation where inflation persists even as the dollar exchange rate remains relatively stable. In essence, prices are escalating at a rapid pace in both dollar and peso terms, indicating that the inflation is more domestically driven within Argentina rather than being tied to external fluctuations in the dollar.

Spot on and agree 100% with you. Milei is a showman. Dollarization was never going to happen. It's a shame so many of the poor believed that could magically happen. Even if they could (which they can't) it wouldn't solve things. No escaping Argentina's brutal inflation. It's going to be a bumpy ride.