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Inflation in Buenos Aires: 1.6% in May, the Lowest Figure in 5 Years

earlyretirement

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🇦🇷📉 Inflation in Buenos Aires City: 1.6% in May, the Lowest Figure in 5 Years

Inflation in the City of Buenos Aires (CABA) was 1.6% in May 2025, marking the lowest monthly figure in five years and breaking below the 2% threshold. This level of inflation had not been seen since July 2020, when the index also registered 1.6%.

Sustained slowdown: The May figure represents a clear deceleration compared to previous months: in April, inflation was 2.3%, and in March, 3.2%.

Year-on-year comparison: Over the last twelve months, accumulated inflation in Buenos Aires reached 48.3%.

Lowest level since 2020: The last time monthly inflation was at similar levels was in July 2020 (1.6%), and since then, such a low variation had not been recorded.

Main Sectors Driving May’s Inflation

According to the official report from the Buenos Aires City Statistics and Census Institute (Idecba), the sectors that contributed most to the price increase in May were:

☑️Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels
☑️Health
☑️Information and communication
☑️Food and non-alcoholic beverages
☑️Education

In particular, the health sector rose by 2.3% due to increases in private health insurance and pharmaceutical products, while housing and transportation each increased by 2.1%, mainly due to rent adjustments and fuel prices.

In food and non-alcoholic beverages, the rise was 1.3%, with increases in meat, dairy, and baked goods, but declines in fruits and vegetables helped contain the overall increase.

The slowdown in inflation in Buenos Aires is due to several factors:

✅Moderation in goods: Goods rose by just 0.8% in May, while services increased by 2%, reflecting less pressure on basic products compared to regulated services or those linked to public tariffs.

✅Drop in seasonal prices: Seasonal prices had the sharpest monthly drop within the surveyed universe, helping to reduce the overall index.

✅National trend: The Buenos Aires figure anticipates a similar trend at the national level, where inflation for May is also expected to fall below 2%, according to government and private estimates.

🔭Outlook

The publication of this data in Buenos Aires is relevant because it often anticipates the price dynamics at the national level. The national government and various analysts expect that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released by INDEC will also show inflation below 2% for May, thus consolidating the downward trend of recent months.

📣 1.6% inflation in Buenos Aires during May 2025 is the lowest monthly figure in five years, marking a shift in trend after several months of deceleration and generating positive expectations for the national measurement.

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The inflation figure is certainly an improvement on previous years.

But its still a bloody disgrace.

Milei and Caputo are forecasting 10.0% for 2026 - I dont have a clue how they will manage that with current market dynamics.
Argentina seems to have a history of Presidents there claiming inflation is lower than it is. All my friends that I met in Argentina are complaining about the high cost of things. @GlasgowJohn how do you see things with boots on the ground? I remember you said you had a kid. Are your tuition payments still going up? A girl that I dated is always asking me for help. Claims the tuitions just keep going up. Is that your experience too?

Insane that people celebrating with 35% annual inflation but I guess considering it was 200% before. Inflation has come down but the cost of stuff still seems like since he was elected keeps going up.
 
The inflation figure is certainly an improvement on previous years.

But its still a bloody disgrace.

Milei and Caputo are forecasting 10.0% for 2026 - I dont have a clue how they will manage that with current market dynamics.
Disgrace is right. 10% for 2026 just ain't going to happen. Inflation has been going up now for 6 months. It's getting worse too. 2024 there was a slowdown. In 2025 we had stagnation int he first few months and then an acceleration in inflation the second half of the year.

Keep in mind December 2025 inflation was higher than December 2024.



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Argentina seems to have a history of Presidents there claiming inflation is lower than it is
Governments in Argentina since I have lived here always try to change the narrative. Note they have stop highlighted monthly inflation or core inflation (which is going up). Now they highlight annual inflation numbers. It's one trick they use when inflation starts to go back up.
 
Disgrace is right. 10% for 2026 just ain't going to happen. Inflation has been going up now for 6 months. It's getting worse too. 2024 there was a slowdown. In 2025 we had stagnation int he first few months and then an acceleration in inflation the second half of the year.

Keep in mind December 2025 inflation was higher than December 2024.



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You beat me to it @James Bond. This is what I was pointing out.
 
The inflation figure is certainly an improvement on previous years.

But its still a bloody disgrace.

Milei and Caputo are forecasting 10.0% for 2026 - I dont have a clue how they will manage that with current market dynamics.
To make things worse the government is supposed to change up the make up of how inflation is calculated to supposedly add in things like transportation and utility bills. After that we should see it going much higher as those things have jumped up quite a lot.
 
The inflation figure is certainly an improvement on previous years.

But its still a bloody disgrace.

Milei and Caputo are forecasting 10.0% for 2026 - I dont have a clue how they will manage that with current market dynamics.
Yep. Inflation is going up not down.
 
Argentina seems to have a history of Presidents there claiming inflation is lower than it is. All my friends that I met in Argentina are complaining about the high cost of things. @GlasgowJohn how do you see things with boots on the ground? I remember you said you had a kid. Are your tuition payments still going up? A girl that I dated is always asking me for help. Claims the tuitions just keep going up. Is that your experience too?

Insane that people celebrating with 35% annual inflation but I guess considering it was 200% before. Inflation has come down but the cost of stuff still seems like since he was elected keeps going up.
Tution paymnets are still going up .....

Well ahead of the 30% annual inflation.

let me try and work out this years increase.
 
Tution paymnets are still going up .....

Well ahead of the 30% annual inflation.

let me try and work out this years increase.
John how does this all work out? Because those I'm talking to their salaries are not matching the true inflation. Are the statistics true that show 70% of Argentines are making less than 1 million pesos a month? Can that really be true? It seems like everyone is just underreporting how much they are making. Is your salary going up more than inflation?
 
John how does this all work out? Because those I'm talking to their salaries are not matching the true inflation. Are the statistics true that show 70% of Argentines are making less than 1 million pesos a month? Can that really be true? It seems like everyone is just underreporting how much they are making. Is your salary going up more than inflation?
That is the million dollar question. How does this all work out? The Central Bank achieved a 98% rollover rate on maturities but has to pay 3.39% per month or almost 50% per year. You do the math if this is sustainable long term.


 
Tution paymnets are still going up .....

Well ahead of the 30% annual inflation.

let me try and work out this years increase.
This is what our friends here all tell me that tuition payments won't stop going up. The inflation looks like it hasn't stopped going up from July. From 1.9% monthly to 2.8% in December and with the change of adding transportation and utilities into the formula it will probably go up even more.

John are the teachers making more money each month? Is that what is causing tuition to keep going up? It seems to be the category I hear friends complaining about the most.


I read online today with the greater weight of utilities alone it will be about 1% more for the year. Read from November 2023 to December 2025 inflation was 259% but with the new focus in utilities it would have been 270%.
 
John how does this all work out? Because those I'm talking to their salaries are not matching the true inflation. Are the statistics true that show 70% of Argentines are making less than 1 million pesos a month? Can that really be true? It seems like everyone is just underreporting how much they are making. Is your salary going up more than inflation?
Unfortunately I dont have a salry - working freelance on a project basis
 
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