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Poverty Projection: UTDT and the Lowest Level Since 2018–2019
New drop in poverty to 34.7%
The Universidad Torcuato Di Tella (UTDT), through its nowcast poverty model, projected that the urban poverty rate for the December 2024–May 2025 semester will be 34.7%, with a 95% confidence interval between 33.2% and 36.2%. This figure represents the lowest level since the 2018–2019 period and a drop of 18.2 percentage points compared to the first half of 2024, when poverty reached 52.9%.
The reduction in poverty is explained by two main factors:
Slowing inflation, which allowed family incomes to grow faster than the increase in basic basket prices.
Increase in family incomes, which in the past year grew more than double the total basic basket in the Greater Buenos Aires region.
In concrete terms, urban poverty currently affects about 10 million people, compared to nearly 16 million a year ago.
Indigence also down
The indigence rate—people whose incomes are not enough to cover the CBA—also showed a historic drop: it went from 17.8% to 7.8% in one year, according to UTDT estimates.
Historical Comparison and Context
The current poverty level (34.7%) is the lowest since the end of 2019 and is at pre-pandemic levels.
The drop is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic stabilization, slower price increases, and income recovery in the most vulnerable sectors.
Analysts and economists note that while the improvement is significant, the downward trend could stabilize in the coming months, depending on the evolution of prices and wages.
Summary
May 2025 inflation: 1.5%, the lowest in 5 years.
Cost of the Basic Food Basket: dropped 0.4% in May, first decrease in three years.
Indigence rate: 7.8%, the lowest in years.
The improvement is due to a combination of lower inflation and higher family income growth.
These data confirm a change in trend in Argentina’s main social and economic indicators, with a significant improvement in poverty and indigence levels, returning to pre-pandemic and 2018–2019 values.
New drop in poverty to 34.7%
The Universidad Torcuato Di Tella (UTDT), through its nowcast poverty model, projected that the urban poverty rate for the December 2024–May 2025 semester will be 34.7%, with a 95% confidence interval between 33.2% and 36.2%. This figure represents the lowest level since the 2018–2019 period and a drop of 18.2 percentage points compared to the first half of 2024, when poverty reached 52.9%.
The reduction in poverty is explained by two main factors:
Slowing inflation, which allowed family incomes to grow faster than the increase in basic basket prices.
Increase in family incomes, which in the past year grew more than double the total basic basket in the Greater Buenos Aires region.
In concrete terms, urban poverty currently affects about 10 million people, compared to nearly 16 million a year ago.
Indigence also down
The indigence rate—people whose incomes are not enough to cover the CBA—also showed a historic drop: it went from 17.8% to 7.8% in one year, according to UTDT estimates.
Historical Comparison and Context
The current poverty level (34.7%) is the lowest since the end of 2019 and is at pre-pandemic levels.
The drop is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic stabilization, slower price increases, and income recovery in the most vulnerable sectors.
Analysts and economists note that while the improvement is significant, the downward trend could stabilize in the coming months, depending on the evolution of prices and wages.
Summary
May 2025 inflation: 1.5%, the lowest in 5 years.
Cost of the Basic Food Basket: dropped 0.4% in May, first decrease in three years.
Indigence rate: 7.8%, the lowest in years.
The improvement is due to a combination of lower inflation and higher family income growth.
These data confirm a change in trend in Argentina’s main social and economic indicators, with a significant improvement in poverty and indigence levels, returning to pre-pandemic and 2018–2019 values.
