Trump says Argentina assistance dependent on election results for ally Milei

[CraigM]

https://thehill.com/business/5555148-milei-trump-ally-argentina-economy/

 

[jbeas176]

i saw that today. they call him taco for a reason. trump always chickens out. he promises everything and delivers about half of what is promised.

 

[ben]

I saw that on the news today. The blue dollar went up today after that. I am not sure how things will turn out as our polling here isn't too good. I guess we will have to wait to see what happens. I don't blame Trump for not wanting to spend money if communists are controlling the Congress and Senate.

 

[Betsy Ross]

https://thehill.com/business/5555148-milei-trump-ally-argentina-economy/

He said out loud what many of us figured was the case. Still Trump is probably confused that Milei is not running in. few weeks. I heard him on the news a few weeks ago and he seems confused that these are mid term elections and Milei is not running. No sure if he knows. Have no idea how the election will turn out. Seems like several I know that were supporting Milei are having second thoughts.

But I ask them what the alternative is and it is a damned if they do and damned if they don't situation for many.

 

[CraigM]

He said out loud what many of us figured was the case.

Agreed. It's crazy to think the US would support a socialist Argentina regardless of whether Trump is President. Even the IMF would be tough to convince.

 

[Wally]

Agreed. It's crazy to think the US would support a socialist Argentina regardless of whether Trump is President. Even the IMF would be tough to convince.

I am not convinced that Bessent didn't just do this to help out his hedge fund friends exit out of positions. I would love to see a true turn around story in Argentina but from my experience living here the country is too screwed up. There is very little faith in the peso. Everyone I know is just stacking USD as usual. That is always the best move in the long term here.

Truth is that if the US didn't jump in when they did the peso might be at 2000 to $1 by now probably.

 

[Finance Prof]

We will know soon enough. Elections are on October 26.

 

[Finance Prof]

I am not convinced that Bessent didn't just do this to help out his hedge fund friends exit out of positions. I would love to see a true turn around story in Argentina but from my experience living here the country is too screwed up. There is very little faith in the peso. Everyone I know is just stacking USD as usual. That is always the best move in the long term here.

Truth is that if the US didn't jump in when they did the peso might be at 2000 to $1 by now probably.

Even with a Milei party victory many are saying the peso will keep sliding.

Morgan Stanley outlined three post-election scenarios: If LLA gets between 35% and 40% of the vote: the dollar rate at $1,700 and 2.5% growth in 2026. If it gets 30% to 35%: the dollar between $1,800 and $2,000, with lower confidence. If it drops to 25% to 30%: a disorderly adjustment, the dollar above $2,000, and 1% growth.

 

[Uncle Wong]

Even with a Milei party victory many are saying the peso will keep sliding.

Morgan Stanley outlined three post-election scenarios: If LLA gets between 35% and 40% of the vote: the dollar rate at $1,700 and 2.5% growth in 2026. If it gets 30% to 35%: the dollar between $1,800 and $2,000, with lower confidence. If it drops to 25% to 30%: a disorderly adjustment, the dollar above $2,000, and 1% growth.


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Wow I guess that would make tourism much more affordable again! But inflation would skyrocket again. Crazy how volatile the peso is. I guess this is why no one there wants to save pesos and only dollars. I guess if the peso goes to 2,500 to $1 we will see prices in dollar terms fall again. Even at peso prices today my Argentine friends say everyone has cut back on spending and going out. I am not sure places can raise their prices higher. Seems like the locals are tapped out.

 

[jbeas176]

not to make this political, if anybody deserves a nobel piece prize it biden. if the award is based on hostages released he got 200 released. trump couldn’t get the 50 released still there. he did get those alive released without a peace agreement . you decide

 

[CraigM]

Even with a Milei party victory many are saying the peso will keep sliding.

Morgan Stanley outlined three post-election scenarios: If LLA gets between 35% and 40% of the vote: the dollar rate at $1,700 and 2.5% growth in 2026. If it gets 30% to 35%: the dollar between $1,800 and $2,000, with lower confidence. If it drops to 25% to 30%: a disorderly adjustment, the dollar above $2,000, and 1% growth.


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With all due respect to Morgan Stanley, they have no idea what the peso is going to do post election. There are so many variables not accounted for in this scenario analysis you'd be better off wiping your bum with it.

 

[Don W]

With all due respect to Morgan Stanley, they have no idea what the peso is going to do post election. There are so many variables not accounted for in this scenario analysis you'd be better off wiping your bum with it.

I don't think anyone knows. I have only been in town a few months and it has swung around violently. Most people tell me it is overvalued but I don't know by how much. All I hope is that the blue dollar keeps going up.

 

[Don W]

Saw this in NYT.

Trump Dangles $20 Billion Lifeline for Argentina, With Strings Attached

President Trump said the economic support is contingent on whether his political ally, President Javier Milei of Argentina, remains in power.

www.nytimes.com

 

[ElQueso]

So much for Trump's "America First" policy. I have family members that voted for him but now see many errors by him. One just asked me WTF about this money helping Argentina when we're in government shutdown.