earlyretirement
Moderator
He was just trying to give people hope last year but agree he shouldn't have said that. An impossible mission in the best of conditions but with this war even if it eventually gets resolves it will cause headaches for Argentina.
With inflation stuck in the 3% range monthly far from the 0% promised by Milei. The government faces another problem that is already looking serious - the tailspin in industrial activity.
This is an undeniably key sector that represents almost 20% of the GDP and employs almost 1.2 million people directly and another 2.4 million indirectly. It's a sector where wages are considered reasonable, basic social protections exist, and, ultimately, reaching retirement isn't a pipe dream.
The point here is that the manufacturing production index averaged a 3.2% year-over-year drop in January 2025, and from there, we have a varied and practically endless streak of red numbers. Say it in one breath: 34.9% in textiles; 34% in footwear; 29.7% for tires and 30% in automotive; 32% in agricultural machinery, and a resounding 64% in computer, TV, and communications equipment!
All of these are factual figures from INDEC meaning, official data that, by a twist of fate, coincide with a new offensive by President Milei against critical business owners, whom he accuses of being corrupt and crony capitalists. It must necessarily be assumed that these are business leaders without any connection, formal or informal, to officials close to political power.
INDEC's industrial statistics also show that 2025 closed with 6 consecutive months of decline, from July to December, before kicking off 2026 with a January that was also in the red. It is no coincidence, then, that during the past year, the utilization of manufacturing production capacity hovered around 53.8%, the lowest value since 2022, and unused or idle capacity therefore hovered around 60%.
Predictable no matter how you look at it, the picture doesn't look prettyor should cause optimism, singing praises to the "M Era," or maintaining that industry "is doing well," as top-tier officials are doing today despite the evidence.
Incidentally, a report by the consulting firm LCG points out that in the 2024-2025 biennium, Argentina suffered the second-largest industrial drop in the world, surpassed only by Hungary. And another report, this time from the UBA's Faculty of Economic Sciences, reveals that the weight of manufacturing activity in the economy fell from 16.5% to 13.5% between mid-2023 and mid-2025, with declines in 22 of the 24 sectors that make up Argentina's industrial structure.
Per capita manufacturing GDP today is similar to that of 1985; that is, no less than 40 years ago. This means a recession is either is already here or is simply an outright recession.
I saw an UBA report that compares the third quarter of 2023 with the third quarter of 2025. It notes drops of 8.3% in industry, 5.2% for commerce, and 14.1% in construction on the "losers" side. And among the "winners," it shows growth of 25.2% in financial activity from high interest rates, 17.9% in mining, and 14% in agriculture.
Then there is the employment situation according to Secretariat of Labor figures reproduced in reports by the UIA's Center for Studies. Resembling a preview of the INDEC numbers, they show that from November 2024 to November 2025, 78,772 industry jobs were lost, and about 227,300 if the count starts in August 2023 and covers the entire private sector.
It isn't the rosy picture that Milei's team tries to make it out to be. I posted a long time ago in Argentina when you fix one thing, 2 other things break. I posted in detail how 1 out of 5 jobs were in the manufacturing sector and what is happening today would happen. The problem is these jobs can't easily be replaced, especially during a recession.
