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Elections and the dollar shake up the real estate market: signs of recovery and new profiles - Ambito Financiero
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www.ambito.com
August 26, 2025
In six months, deeds increased, and the return of mortgage lending boosted the sector. The type of buyer and investor investing in real estate has changed.
The Argentine real estate market is in a period of transition. Dollar volatility and the approaching elections warrant caution, but the sector is showing clear signs of recovery: more deeds, rising prices, and improved credit. Pexels
The Argentine real estate market is experiencing a period of convergence between two decisive factors: the volatility of the dollar and the approaching legislative elections in October. Both are affecting the business climate, generating tensions among those seeking to purchase for personal use or investment, and are shaping the pulse of a sector that is showing signs of recovery after years of paralysis .
Business leaders in the sector agree that the current situation opens up concrete opportunities for those with liquidity or access to credit, although political and financial uncertainty remains.
Diego Álvarez Espín , real estate developer and founder of MI, stated that "the market is strained by electoral uncertainty and the abundance of pesos in circulation, which is pushing for dollarization and maintaining exchange rate volatility, despite high interest rates." The IMF's $2 billion disbursement brought temporary calm, but caution remains in the stock market and sovereign bond markets.
“Pre-owned properties are on the rise, with prices stabilized at around US$2,160 per square meter and a 15% year-over-year increase. Deregulation and the return of mortgage lending are spurring this demand,” said Álvarez Espín.
Santiago Vitali , CEO of De.de, added that the proximity of the elections impacts decision-making. “People who access mortgage loans rush to close deals to avoid an exchange rate fluctuation that could jeopardize their home purchase. On the other hand, those looking to invest wait for the elections to validate the economic direction and see if reforms such as tax and labor reforms can advance with a new Congress,” he explained.
“Rather than providing relief, the high dollar makes projects more expensive,” Álvarez Espín summarized. Vitali agreed and warned that the exchange rate hike is not decisive in the short term. “The exchange rate moves within a range; when it reaches the extremes, monetary policy can intervene. This is not a structural drop in costs. The increase of the last few days moderated later and could be repeated. It remains to be seen whether, when the extremes of the ranges are reached, the government will validate monetary policy by intervening in the exchange rate.”
The political and economic direction of the months following the elections will determine the depth of the recovery. The combination of credit, exchange rate stability, and tax predictability will be crucial to sustaining the recovery and opening a new cycle in the sector.
For investors, the situation poses a paradox. Vitali emphasized that "there is still an effect where finished homes are cheaper than those under construction, which is illogical given the risk involved. These are opportunities that can be taken advantage of today." The price gap between used and under-construction homes has widened in recent months, and those seeking to protect capital see real estate as a safe haven with projected appreciation.
Vitali agreed that predictability will be crucial. He noted: “The most favorable scenario is one where there is no further uncertainty and a balanced cost structure is maintained. Having forecasts for variables such as the exchange rate not only gives investors confidence, but also allows for projecting construction costs and making new developments viable.”
Briones emphasized that the more predictable macroeconomic environment favors access to mortgage loans, offered in pesos and adjusted for inflation. Added to this is the money laundering and greater availability of financing, which are driving demand. According to his projections, 2025 could surpass the sales of 2024, when Estudio Kohon closed 350 transactions. So far this year, they have already sold 150 units.
This optimism is also supported by the market's seasonality, with the greatest activity concentrated in the last quarter. Added to this are expectations surrounding the elections, the outcome of which could influence investor confidence.
www.buysellba.com
Source:
Elecciones y dólar agitan el mercado inmobiliario: señales de recuperación y nuevos perfiles
En 6 meses crecieron escrituras y el regreso del crédito hipotecario potenció el sector. Cambió el tipo de comprador y del inversor que apuestan en el ladrillo.
www.ambito.com
August 26, 2025
In six months, deeds increased, and the return of mortgage lending boosted the sector. The type of buyer and investor investing in real estate has changed.
The Argentine real estate market is in a period of transition. Dollar volatility and the approaching elections warrant caution, but the sector is showing clear signs of recovery: more deeds, rising prices, and improved credit. Pexels
The Argentine real estate market is experiencing a period of convergence between two decisive factors: the volatility of the dollar and the approaching legislative elections in October. Both are affecting the business climate, generating tensions among those seeking to purchase for personal use or investment, and are shaping the pulse of a sector that is showing signs of recovery after years of paralysis .
Business leaders in the sector agree that the current situation opens up concrete opportunities for those with liquidity or access to credit, although political and financial uncertainty remains.
Diego Álvarez Espín , real estate developer and founder of MI, stated that "the market is strained by electoral uncertainty and the abundance of pesos in circulation, which is pushing for dollarization and maintaining exchange rate volatility, despite high interest rates." The IMF's $2 billion disbursement brought temporary calm, but caution remains in the stock market and sovereign bond markets.
Recovery and suffrage
Beyond the financial volatility, real estate began to show positive results . In the first half of 2025, property deeds grew 35% year-over-year and 50% compared to 2023. The momentum was concentrated in the City of Buenos Aires, the province , and Rosario, with a used market that once again gained prominence.“Pre-owned properties are on the rise, with prices stabilized at around US$2,160 per square meter and a 15% year-over-year increase. Deregulation and the return of mortgage lending are spurring this demand,” said Álvarez Espín.
Santiago Vitali , CEO of De.de, added that the proximity of the elections impacts decision-making. “People who access mortgage loans rush to close deals to avoid an exchange rate fluctuation that could jeopardize their home purchase. On the other hand, those looking to invest wait for the elections to validate the economic direction and see if reforms such as tax and labor reforms can advance with a new Congress,” he explained.
Rising construction costs
The rise of the dollar did not relieve developers either . On the contrary, costs in dollars increased after the end of the currency controls. According to data from the Association of Small and Medium-Sized Construction Companies (Apymeco), a 20% increase in hard currency was recorded in April 2025, reaching nearly US$1,500 per square meter. In historical terms, construction costs are now 60% above the 2018 peak.“Rather than providing relief, the high dollar makes projects more expensive,” Álvarez Espín summarized. Vitali agreed and warned that the exchange rate hike is not decisive in the short term. “The exchange rate moves within a range; when it reaches the extremes, monetary policy can intervene. This is not a structural drop in costs. The increase of the last few days moderated later and could be repeated. It remains to be seen whether, when the extremes of the ranges are reached, the government will validate monetary policy by intervening in the exchange rate.”
Opportunities and paradoxes
Despite the economic tensions, the real estate market still offers attractive niches. For end users, the combination of recovering prices and the return of mortgage loans—whose cost is comparable to that of renting in many cases—opens a window of opportunity for access to housing. Under construction, prices range from US$1,300 per square meter in simple projects to over US$3,000 per square meter in premium developments.
The political and economic direction of the months following the elections will determine the depth of the recovery. The combination of credit, exchange rate stability, and tax predictability will be crucial to sustaining the recovery and opening a new cycle in the sector.
For investors, the situation poses a paradox. Vitali emphasized that "there is still an effect where finished homes are cheaper than those under construction, which is illogical given the risk involved. These are opportunities that can be taken advantage of today." The price gap between used and under-construction homes has widened in recent months, and those seeking to protect capital see real estate as a safe haven with projected appreciation.
Post-election expectations
All eyes are on what happens after the October legislative elections. Álvarez Espín maintained that "the key will be to consolidate an exchange rate and tax regime that favors exports, generates current surpluses, and reduces volatility." According to the businessman, a government with legislative support could create a more favorable environment for economic and financial development; otherwise, instability could continue.Vitali agreed that predictability will be crucial. He noted: “The most favorable scenario is one where there is no further uncertainty and a balanced cost structure is maintained. Having forecasts for variables such as the exchange rate not only gives investors confidence, but also allows for projecting construction costs and making new developments viable.”
The new profile
The market is also experiencing a shift in the types of property buyers. Iván Briones , commercial director of Estudio Kohon, observed a transformation in buyer profiles. “There is notable interest from investors seeking to position themselves in the sector due to the expectation of future property appreciation. These investments are concentrated in small units, while end buyers are showing interest in larger, three- and four-bedroom properties. The demand for four-bedroom units has surprised the market, with several transactions underway, something unusual in previous years,” he explained.Briones emphasized that the more predictable macroeconomic environment favors access to mortgage loans, offered in pesos and adjusted for inflation. Added to this is the money laundering and greater availability of financing, which are driving demand. According to his projections, 2025 could surpass the sales of 2024, when Estudio Kohon closed 350 transactions. So far this year, they have already sold 150 units.
This optimism is also supported by the market's seasonality, with the greatest activity concentrated in the last quarter. Added to this are expectations surrounding the elections, the outcome of which could influence investor confidence.
www.buysellba.com
