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Argentina - Property Investor News Magazine - UK
By Mark Hempshell
April 01, 2006
Argentina was sparsely populated until Europeans arrived in 1502 and the country was colonised by Spain - from whom independence was declared in 1816. Over the next 160 years centralist and federalist, conservative and radical, and civil and military administrations traded power. In 1983 after decades of political turmoil, plagued by terrorism and oppression under which countless numbers of opponents 'disappeared', the last military dictatorship was ousted and democracy was restored. In the 1980's and 1990's the Government introduced measures to take civilian control of the armed forces and permanently establish the country as a democracy.
Despite, at times, having suffered from political and economic turmoil República Argentina is still the most developed country in South America, and to all intents and purposes a 'first world' nation, not a 'third world' one. It has the highest GDP per capita, the highest levels of university education and an infrastructure comparable with industrialized nations.
The Economy
Foreign investment and immigration from Europe shaped Argentina into an advanced economy during the 19th century. From 1880-1930 the country was one of the ten wealthiest nations in the world. But years of political problems contributed to economic decline, leading to massive public debts and severe hyperinflation by the late 1970's. In 1991, under President Carlos Menem, the Government embarked on a programme of trade liberalisation, deregulation and privatisation with the aim of rejuvenating the economy. Most significant of these, as we will see later, was the 'Convertibility Law', which pegged the value of the currency, the peso, to the US dollar on a one-for-one basis.
Initially the economy improved but falling exports, growing imports, unemployment and the impact of the Asian economic crisis eventually took their toll. By 2001 GDP had plummeted, inflation exceeded 1,000% and unemployment reached 25%. The peso-dollar tie was ended in 2002 and the currency lost 70% of its value. Argentina defaulted on its international debts, public employees went unpaid and bank accounts (an extremely unpopular measure known as corralito) were frozen, leading to street rioting.
In 2003 strict fiscal measures including revaluing the currency, import substitution policies and increasing exports contributed to a sudden surge in GDP. Internal consumption increased, foreign investment returned and the so-called 'Tango Revival' began. The economy grew 8.8% in 2003, 9% in 2004, and 9.1% in 2005 by which time unemployment had fallen to 10%. The Government completed restructuring of the national debt in February 2005, which now stands at 69% of GDP and is slowly decreasing. According to INDEC, the National Institute of Statistics and Census, GDP expansion for 2006 could be 7%.
State Of The Property Market
As in other developed nations property here was always considered a rock-solid investment. But the economic collapse of 2001-2002 shook that belief to its foundations. During this time people lost the majority of their savings and their pensions. The breaking of the peso-dollar tie caused the currency to lose 70% of its value against the dollar by December 2002 - making previously-attractive dollar mortgages cripplingly expensive. People were desperate to sell their property to salvage something and, burdened by many sellers and few buyers, the property market collapsed. The rental market was also severely affected : According to 'Reporte Inmobiliario', which reports on trends in the market, average residential rents dropped by 74% from US$29 to US$7 per m² during 2001 alone.
But with the economic revival the market began to move again. By the end of 2003 residential property had, on average, recovered to 67% of its pre-crash value. By January 2006 prices in many areas have recovered to their pre-crash levels, and in some have increased by as much as 34% in a year. Property transactions, together with new build completions, reached a new record in November 2005. Some outside observers wonder how, given recent events, confidence has returned to the market so quickly. One key reason is that, after the corralito, many Argentineans do not trust the banks and still regard land and property as a more secure investment.
Another factor which bodes well for the property market is that buying property here is straightforward. Foreign investors may buy without permission. Once you have found property the title is checked, the escritoire is signed and the purchase is registered. There is no capital gains tax.
Buenos Aires
Argentina is divided into 23 provinces and one autonomous city - Buenos Aires, widely known as capital federal. The city itself has a population of 2.7 million and the city plus the greater metropolitan area 11.5 million, making it one of the largest conurbations in the world.
Buenos Aires has a modern high-rise centre with thriving commercial districts, yet is notable for its quality of life with extensive green spaces, good public amenities and transport and - as the name suggests - a pleasant climate. It is gradually becoming recognized as something of an undiscovered gem compared to most overcrowded international cities. In a recent article 'The Washington Post' proclaimed 'Forget about Europe, go instead to beautiful Buenos Aires - the city with everything but without the high costs of European cities.'
Living costs are indeed low for any city, although rising : A good meal for two with wine costs US$20, a cinema visit US$4 and domestic staff can be hired for US$2 an hour. Not unsurprisingly, therefore, it is proving a major draw to expatriates, migrant workers, entrepreneurs, retirees and students from Argentina, the rest of South America and, increasingly, the USA.
Property prices here have been rising briskly since 2003, but are still extremely low by capital city standards. It is still possible to buy a studio apartment in a good central area for US$50,000, although these are becoming rarer. Across the city generally new build property tends to be more expensive than old, and floor area tends to be more generous than in most European cities.
Recoleta, north of the centre, is regarded as the most desirable and fashionable residential district and is also popular with tourists. It is very much the 'Fifth Avenue' or 'Mayfair' of the capital, home to deluxe hotels, fine restaurants and designer shops. Current apartment prices range between US$1,500-US$3,000 per m², with one bedroom apartments typically selling for US$90,000 and two bedroom apartments starting at US$135,000. Prices were already high by Argentinean standards so showed a relatively modest 15% price rise in 2005.
Palermo is another good quality residential area, with a reputation as a 'trendy' district. Current prices in Palermo range between US$1,300-US$2,800 per m². Puerto Madero is a newly developed area, similar to the London Docklands. Prices are already at a premium here, at around US$2,200-$3,000 per m² and only a few sites are left for new development.
Of course, as elsewhere, the greatest price appreciation is often found in the up-and-coming districts. San Telmo to the northwest of the centre is a bohemian area of pavement cafes, bistros and antique shops, still showing signs of its working class roots. A regeneration programme to improve security and enhance the street scene is currently underway. Also up-and-coming is La Boca on the southern edge of Buenos Aires at the mouth of the River Riachuelo. These districts are home to the city's famous Tango clubs. Prices are currently in the region of US$800 to US$1,200 per m² and these areas are tipped by many commentators for growth.
Michael Koh, President of ApartmentsBA, has made extensive real estate investments on behalf of his own company and as a consultant to investors, and firmly believes in Recoleta despite its relatively high prices. He says 'Recoleta will always be Recoleta. The best investment is buying in a good area like Recoleta but not on a posh street like Avenida Alvear where prices have already gone over US$3,000 per m². You can go just a few blocks away in a very nice part of Recoleta and pay US$1,500 per m².' He points out 'Many investors are buying for short-term rentals (serviced apartments). So it doesn't make sense to pay US$3,000 per m² when you can pay half of that in a good part of Recoleta. The average tourist that comes down and books an apartment won't know the difference of 5 or 6 blocks.'
Michael is also very confident about the Palermo Soho/Viejo/Hollywood areas which he believes will be transformed, particularly as tourism increases. He tells us 'I predict these areas will explode with growth within the next 3-5 years' and he has started to purchase up plots of land in this area in anticipation of building luxury houses and boutique hotels.
Tourism, Agriculture And Land Investments
An important issue to factor in is the part tourism could play in the property market. Tourists dwindled to almost nothing when the peso-dollar tie made it prohibitively expensive to visit. But today's bargain living costs saw visitors rocket to 3 million last year. Tourism Secretary Carlos Enrique Meyer recently predicted 4.1 million tourists and US$3.5 billion of tourist income for 2006, with 10 million visitors projected by 2010. A number of airlines are restarting or launching new routes.
Major draws for tourists are Buenos Aires, the Iguazú Falls and Patagonia. There are several good quality ski resorts in the Andes (the season is June-September) such as Bariloche, Las Leñas and Villa Angostura. Hotels in these areas are frequently fully booked, fuelling the demand for short-term house and apartment rentals. Investors are also active in buying land with future residential development potential in tourist areas.
Argentina has always been a major and well developed agricultural country. As well as being self-sufficient in food it is the world's fifth largest agricultural exporter, and agriculture accounts for 60% of all exports. Agricultural land is very cheap by international standards and there has already been notable foreign investment in agricultural land. International investors such as George Soros, Kerry Packer, the Sultan of Brunei and Ted Turner are already believed to have bought up large tracts of land, particularly in Patagonia. Analysts agree that, should the USA and EU eventually agree to remove or reduce subsidies for their own agricultural sectors countries like Argentina could benefit considerably.
Future Prospects
So what are the prospects for prices in 2006 and of course rental yields? Michael Koh reports 'Prices have drastically risen all over the city in good areas like Recoleta, Barrio Norte, Palermo, Palermo Soho/Viejo/Hollywood, Puerto Madero. Areas outside of those areas were not as drastic. Property prices went up by as much as 25%-30% last year in some areas of the city. However, much depends on the kind of apartment, building and location.'
On rental yields he says 'The rental market has exploded. There are a lot of apartment rentals on the market for tourists. Hundreds if not over a thousand. The typical average rental probably yields about 6-8% per year on the total investment.' However, he advises that high quality, well equipped properties can yield much more. I offer luxurious furniture, high-tech electronics, local cellphones, USA phone lines, high-speed Internet and many other features. Most locals aren't willing to make this investment. However, it enables us to make a much higher rate of return. Many of my clients have yielded as high as 11% - 16% a year on the rental income alone.'
Michael is extremely confident about prospects for the market, stating 'I've always said that real estate here in Argentina is one of those once in a lifetime opportunities. I still maintain that property rates can easily double in good areas from today's prices.'
www.buysellba.com
By Mark Hempshell
April 01, 2006
Argentina
Argentina was sparsely populated until Europeans arrived in 1502 and the country was colonised by Spain - from whom independence was declared in 1816. Over the next 160 years centralist and federalist, conservative and radical, and civil and military administrations traded power. In 1983 after decades of political turmoil, plagued by terrorism and oppression under which countless numbers of opponents 'disappeared', the last military dictatorship was ousted and democracy was restored. In the 1980's and 1990's the Government introduced measures to take civilian control of the armed forces and permanently establish the country as a democracy.
Despite, at times, having suffered from political and economic turmoil República Argentina is still the most developed country in South America, and to all intents and purposes a 'first world' nation, not a 'third world' one. It has the highest GDP per capita, the highest levels of university education and an infrastructure comparable with industrialized nations.
The Economy
Foreign investment and immigration from Europe shaped Argentina into an advanced economy during the 19th century. From 1880-1930 the country was one of the ten wealthiest nations in the world. But years of political problems contributed to economic decline, leading to massive public debts and severe hyperinflation by the late 1970's. In 1991, under President Carlos Menem, the Government embarked on a programme of trade liberalisation, deregulation and privatisation with the aim of rejuvenating the economy. Most significant of these, as we will see later, was the 'Convertibility Law', which pegged the value of the currency, the peso, to the US dollar on a one-for-one basis.
Initially the economy improved but falling exports, growing imports, unemployment and the impact of the Asian economic crisis eventually took their toll. By 2001 GDP had plummeted, inflation exceeded 1,000% and unemployment reached 25%. The peso-dollar tie was ended in 2002 and the currency lost 70% of its value. Argentina defaulted on its international debts, public employees went unpaid and bank accounts (an extremely unpopular measure known as corralito) were frozen, leading to street rioting.
In 2003 strict fiscal measures including revaluing the currency, import substitution policies and increasing exports contributed to a sudden surge in GDP. Internal consumption increased, foreign investment returned and the so-called 'Tango Revival' began. The economy grew 8.8% in 2003, 9% in 2004, and 9.1% in 2005 by which time unemployment had fallen to 10%. The Government completed restructuring of the national debt in February 2005, which now stands at 69% of GDP and is slowly decreasing. According to INDEC, the National Institute of Statistics and Census, GDP expansion for 2006 could be 7%.
State Of The Property Market
As in other developed nations property here was always considered a rock-solid investment. But the economic collapse of 2001-2002 shook that belief to its foundations. During this time people lost the majority of their savings and their pensions. The breaking of the peso-dollar tie caused the currency to lose 70% of its value against the dollar by December 2002 - making previously-attractive dollar mortgages cripplingly expensive. People were desperate to sell their property to salvage something and, burdened by many sellers and few buyers, the property market collapsed. The rental market was also severely affected : According to 'Reporte Inmobiliario', which reports on trends in the market, average residential rents dropped by 74% from US$29 to US$7 per m² during 2001 alone.
But with the economic revival the market began to move again. By the end of 2003 residential property had, on average, recovered to 67% of its pre-crash value. By January 2006 prices in many areas have recovered to their pre-crash levels, and in some have increased by as much as 34% in a year. Property transactions, together with new build completions, reached a new record in November 2005. Some outside observers wonder how, given recent events, confidence has returned to the market so quickly. One key reason is that, after the corralito, many Argentineans do not trust the banks and still regard land and property as a more secure investment.
Another factor which bodes well for the property market is that buying property here is straightforward. Foreign investors may buy without permission. Once you have found property the title is checked, the escritoire is signed and the purchase is registered. There is no capital gains tax.
Buenos Aires
Argentina is divided into 23 provinces and one autonomous city - Buenos Aires, widely known as capital federal. The city itself has a population of 2.7 million and the city plus the greater metropolitan area 11.5 million, making it one of the largest conurbations in the world.
Buenos Aires has a modern high-rise centre with thriving commercial districts, yet is notable for its quality of life with extensive green spaces, good public amenities and transport and - as the name suggests - a pleasant climate. It is gradually becoming recognized as something of an undiscovered gem compared to most overcrowded international cities. In a recent article 'The Washington Post' proclaimed 'Forget about Europe, go instead to beautiful Buenos Aires - the city with everything but without the high costs of European cities.'
Living costs are indeed low for any city, although rising : A good meal for two with wine costs US$20, a cinema visit US$4 and domestic staff can be hired for US$2 an hour. Not unsurprisingly, therefore, it is proving a major draw to expatriates, migrant workers, entrepreneurs, retirees and students from Argentina, the rest of South America and, increasingly, the USA.
Property prices here have been rising briskly since 2003, but are still extremely low by capital city standards. It is still possible to buy a studio apartment in a good central area for US$50,000, although these are becoming rarer. Across the city generally new build property tends to be more expensive than old, and floor area tends to be more generous than in most European cities.
Recoleta, north of the centre, is regarded as the most desirable and fashionable residential district and is also popular with tourists. It is very much the 'Fifth Avenue' or 'Mayfair' of the capital, home to deluxe hotels, fine restaurants and designer shops. Current apartment prices range between US$1,500-US$3,000 per m², with one bedroom apartments typically selling for US$90,000 and two bedroom apartments starting at US$135,000. Prices were already high by Argentinean standards so showed a relatively modest 15% price rise in 2005.
Palermo is another good quality residential area, with a reputation as a 'trendy' district. Current prices in Palermo range between US$1,300-US$2,800 per m². Puerto Madero is a newly developed area, similar to the London Docklands. Prices are already at a premium here, at around US$2,200-$3,000 per m² and only a few sites are left for new development.
Of course, as elsewhere, the greatest price appreciation is often found in the up-and-coming districts. San Telmo to the northwest of the centre is a bohemian area of pavement cafes, bistros and antique shops, still showing signs of its working class roots. A regeneration programme to improve security and enhance the street scene is currently underway. Also up-and-coming is La Boca on the southern edge of Buenos Aires at the mouth of the River Riachuelo. These districts are home to the city's famous Tango clubs. Prices are currently in the region of US$800 to US$1,200 per m² and these areas are tipped by many commentators for growth.
Michael Koh, President of ApartmentsBA, has made extensive real estate investments on behalf of his own company and as a consultant to investors, and firmly believes in Recoleta despite its relatively high prices. He says 'Recoleta will always be Recoleta. The best investment is buying in a good area like Recoleta but not on a posh street like Avenida Alvear where prices have already gone over US$3,000 per m². You can go just a few blocks away in a very nice part of Recoleta and pay US$1,500 per m².' He points out 'Many investors are buying for short-term rentals (serviced apartments). So it doesn't make sense to pay US$3,000 per m² when you can pay half of that in a good part of Recoleta. The average tourist that comes down and books an apartment won't know the difference of 5 or 6 blocks.'
Michael is also very confident about the Palermo Soho/Viejo/Hollywood areas which he believes will be transformed, particularly as tourism increases. He tells us 'I predict these areas will explode with growth within the next 3-5 years' and he has started to purchase up plots of land in this area in anticipation of building luxury houses and boutique hotels.
Tourism, Agriculture And Land Investments
An important issue to factor in is the part tourism could play in the property market. Tourists dwindled to almost nothing when the peso-dollar tie made it prohibitively expensive to visit. But today's bargain living costs saw visitors rocket to 3 million last year. Tourism Secretary Carlos Enrique Meyer recently predicted 4.1 million tourists and US$3.5 billion of tourist income for 2006, with 10 million visitors projected by 2010. A number of airlines are restarting or launching new routes.
Major draws for tourists are Buenos Aires, the Iguazú Falls and Patagonia. There are several good quality ski resorts in the Andes (the season is June-September) such as Bariloche, Las Leñas and Villa Angostura. Hotels in these areas are frequently fully booked, fuelling the demand for short-term house and apartment rentals. Investors are also active in buying land with future residential development potential in tourist areas.
Argentina has always been a major and well developed agricultural country. As well as being self-sufficient in food it is the world's fifth largest agricultural exporter, and agriculture accounts for 60% of all exports. Agricultural land is very cheap by international standards and there has already been notable foreign investment in agricultural land. International investors such as George Soros, Kerry Packer, the Sultan of Brunei and Ted Turner are already believed to have bought up large tracts of land, particularly in Patagonia. Analysts agree that, should the USA and EU eventually agree to remove or reduce subsidies for their own agricultural sectors countries like Argentina could benefit considerably.
Future Prospects
So what are the prospects for prices in 2006 and of course rental yields? Michael Koh reports 'Prices have drastically risen all over the city in good areas like Recoleta, Barrio Norte, Palermo, Palermo Soho/Viejo/Hollywood, Puerto Madero. Areas outside of those areas were not as drastic. Property prices went up by as much as 25%-30% last year in some areas of the city. However, much depends on the kind of apartment, building and location.'
On rental yields he says 'The rental market has exploded. There are a lot of apartment rentals on the market for tourists. Hundreds if not over a thousand. The typical average rental probably yields about 6-8% per year on the total investment.' However, he advises that high quality, well equipped properties can yield much more. I offer luxurious furniture, high-tech electronics, local cellphones, USA phone lines, high-speed Internet and many other features. Most locals aren't willing to make this investment. However, it enables us to make a much higher rate of return. Many of my clients have yielded as high as 11% - 16% a year on the rental income alone.'
Michael is extremely confident about prospects for the market, stating 'I've always said that real estate here in Argentina is one of those once in a lifetime opportunities. I still maintain that property rates can easily double in good areas from today's prices.'
www.buysellba.com
