Argentina Gets $16 Billion US Judgement Tossed on Appeal

[oil rush]

Argentina won its appeal! One thing that Milei got right. All those trips meeting with Trump probably didn't hurt.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-27/argentina-wins-reversal-of-us-decision-in-ypf-case-on-appeal?taid=69c6959db7d88c00019ddbe8&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&embedded-checkout=true

 

[earlyretirement]

Great news for Argentina.

 

[import export]

That takes a lot of uncertainty off the table. And although the War is bad for Argentina right now longer term it will be a win.

 

[Cricket]

A very good day for Argentina but the people losing that case are probably crying right now.

 

[Problema]

What good news!

 

[VINO]

Argentina won its appeal! One thing that Milei got right. All those trips meeting with Trump probably didn't hurt.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-27/argentina-wins-reversal-of-us-decision-in-ypf-case-on-appeal?taid=69c6959db7d88c00019ddbe8&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&embedded-checkout=true

Wait does this mean Kiciloff was right? People were saying how he was totally wrong but I guess this validates what he did and Argentina benefitted?

 

[Avocado]

Wait does this mean Kiciloff was right? People were saying how he was totally wrong but I guess this validates what he did and Argentina benefitted?

Yes he was right after all! This validates what he did. Argentina had big big win.

YPF getting nationalized put the country back in control. Now we will benefit greatly in future. Argentina only paid $5 billion in 2014. Next to nothing and they don't have to pay anything else now. Maybe this will help him with his election win next year. I hope so.

 

[oil rush]

Yes he was right after all! This validates what he did. Argentina had big big win.

YPF getting nationalized put the country back in control. Now we will benefit greatly in future. Argentina only paid $5 billion in 2014. Next to nothing and they don't have to pay anything else now. Maybe this will help him with his election win next year. I hope so.

It will be interesting if this increases his odds of winning. He will use the same logic you are arguing @Avocado.

You are correct that Argentina got a prize jewel (YPF) for very cheap but the way Kicillof seized the company cost Argentina more in indirect economic damage because it shattered investor confidence in Argentina.

No one wanted to do business in Argentina after that. FDI dried up.

Argentina's risk premium also skyrocketed. The country was locked out of international credit markets after that. They had to turn on the money printer. And a large part of why they are still having problems.

The lack of money didn't just hurt the energy sector. It hurt investments for over a decade. The country is still working against that stigma. But you are right they picked up the company for almost nothing. And it will be very valuable heading into the future. So Kiciloff may use that in his marketing for President.

 

[CraigM]

It will be interesting if this increases his odds of winning. He will use the same logic you are arguing @Avocado.

You are correct that Argentina got a prize jewel (YPF) for very cheap but the way Kicillof seized the company cost Argentina more in indirect economic damage because it shattered investor confidence in Argentina.

No one wanted to do business in Argentina after that. FDI dried up.

Argentina's risk premium also skyrocketed. The country was locked out of international credit markets after that. They had to turn on the money printer. And a large part of why they are still having problems.

The lack of money didn't just hurt the energy sector. It hurt investments for over a decade. The country is still working against that stigma. But you are right they picked up the company for almost nothing. And it will be very valuable heading into the future. So Kiciloff may use that in his marketing for President.

Agreed, it's a short term win that Argentina needed given its cash flow/debt repayment problems. But I would not view this as a validation of Kiciloff at all, Argentina has already paid a high price for YPF and will continue to do so for many years into the future. If anything the stench of doing business in Argentina is worse now - their most business-friendly president in decades won't stand behind the country's agreements, and international courts can no longer be relied upon to resolve disputes.

 

[oil rush]

Agreed, it's a short term win that Argentina needed given its cash flow/debt repayment problems. But I would not view this as a validation of Kiciloff at all, Argentina has already paid a high price for YPF and will continue to do so for many years into the future. If anything the stench of doing business in Argentina is worse now - their most business-friendly president in decades won't stand behind the country's agreements, and international courts can no longer be relied upon to resolve disputes.

Unfortunately the vast majority in Argentina are poor and financially illiterate.

You are right Craig. We will probably see FDI stay on the sidelines to see how things shake out. As you corrected noted, the stench of operating in Argentina is worse. What hope does a foreign company have in the event of a dispute if there is no recourse?

 

[import export]

Agreed, it's a short term win that Argentina needed given its cash flow/debt repayment problems. But I would not view this as a validation of Kiciloff at all, Argentina has already paid a high price for YPF and will continue to do so for many years into the future. If anything the stench of doing business in Argentina is worse now - their most business-friendly president in decades won't stand behind the country's agreements, and international courts can no longer be relied upon to resolve disputes.

Milei at first planed on honoring what they needed to pay. Like many things he changed his tune. Short term win but not sure any big investments by foreigners will look at this as good news.

 

[earlyretirement]

Agreed, it's a short term win that Argentina needed given its cash flow/debt repayment problems. But I would not view this as a validation of Kiciloff at all, Argentina has already paid a high price for YPF and will continue to do so for many years into the future. If anything the stench of doing business in Argentina is worse now - their most business-friendly president in decades won't stand behind the country's agreements, and international courts can no longer be relied upon to resolve disputes.

You nailed it as usual Craig. I posted about it this morning. I've been posting how FDI is actually net negative in 2025. Many companies racing to get out. They used Milei as exit liquidity.

 

[Good Stuff]

Milei at first planed on honoring what they needed to pay. Like many things he changed his tune. Short term win but not sure any big investments by foreigners will look at this as good news.

This is a link to an article from the famous BowTiedMara wrote on his substack about the case. He has some very good content about Argentine History that is not behind a paywall. Some very good stuff and this is a history of the corruption of the case, going back 30 years.
https://www.bowtiedmara.io/p/ypf-the-laundromat-of-the-century

 

[Peabody]

This is a link to an article from the famous BowTiedMara wrote on his substack about the case. He has some very good content about Argentine History that is not behind a paywall. Some very good stuff and this is a history of the corruption of the case, going back 30 years.
https://www.bowtiedmara.io/p/ypf-the-laundromat-of-the-century

This case is a good lesson of the amount of corruption in Argentina.

 

[Avocado]

Today Argentina is not in default thanks to Vaca Muerta.

Vaca Muerta was developed thanks to the expropriation of YPF.

YPF was expropriated thanks to the great work of Cristina and Axel.

Therefore, Milei’s weak government is not collapsing thanks to AXEL KICILLOF.

 

[Vero]

Today Argentina is not in default thanks to Vaca Muerta.

Vaca Muerta was developed thanks to the expropriation of YPF.

YPF was expropriated thanks to the great work of Cristina and Axel.

Therefore, Milei’s weak government is not collapsing thanks to AXEL KICILLOF.

In the end it seems like Cristina and Axel didn't do too bad. Ironic that Axel will be responsible in small part for keeping Milei alive a little longer.

 

[BarryBloomWwf]

Today Argentina is not in default thanks to Vaca Muerta.

Vaca Muerta was developed thanks to the expropriation of YPF.

YPF was expropriated thanks to the great work of Cristina and Axel.

Therefore, Milei’s weak government is not collapsing thanks to AXEL KICILLOF.

What the chance of Cristina's daughter taking over as president I thought I read Cristina was living with her a while under house arrest. She has the genes for it with two president parents

 

[Vero]

What the chance of Cristina's daughter taking over as president I thought I read Cristina was living with her a while under house arrest. She has the genes for it with two president parents

Honestly Barry ANYONE would be better than Milei and his sister. At least people are coming to their senses and admitting they made a grave error trying him.

Unfortunately all the options are very bad. But things went from bad to worse and getting worse each day.

 

[BarryBloomWwf]

getting worse each day.

Yer I was actually waiting to buy a milenesa sandwich to go for lunch today and there was a homeless looking guy asking me to buy him something to eat. I've been here a long time and thought I was already immune to this stuff but he was so persistent and aggressive it actually started freaking me out and I just left.

Its definitely getting worse

 

[MikeYoung]

Today Argentina is not in default thanks to Vaca Muerta.

Vaca Muerta was developed thanks to the expropriation of YPF.

YPF was expropriated thanks to the great work of Cristina and Axel.

Therefore, Milei’s weak government is not collapsing thanks to AXEL KICILLOF.

Avocado! In the end you might be right after all. I know you have been warning us for a long time things would turn out this way. You might get the last laugh.

What the chance of Cristina's daughter taking over as president I thought I read Cristina was living with her a while under house arrest. She has the genes for it with two president parents

I think the Ks are totally finished. Their legacy is in ruins. Kicillof seems like he is still terrible but his approval ratings are about as bad/good as Milei now.

Honestly Barry ANYONE would be better than Milei and his sister. At least people are coming to their senses and admitting they made a grave error trying him.

Unfortunately all the options are very bad. But things went from bad to worse and getting worse each day.

This is also what I hear that things are worse now. Salaries haven't recovered in real wages it doesn't seem like after you factor in the price of everything.

Yer I was actually waiting to buy a milenesa sandwich to go for lunch today and there was a homeless looking guy asking me to buy him something to eat. I've been here a long time and thought I was already immune to this stuff but he was so persistent and aggressive it actually started freaking me out and I just left.

Its definitely getting worse

I definitely noticed the homeless situation is much worse now. You can see it everywhere. I never get immune to it. I noticed lately a lot of elderly not bad dressed going through the trash now. That breaks my heart! I have bought a lot of meals for people especially the poor.