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Apartment prices: Can they go down? - La Nacion Propiedades
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Los precios de los departamentos: ¿pueden bajar?
Un relevamiento reveló qué podría pasar en el futuro del mercado y qué unidades se verán más afectada con la situación de los préstamos hipotecarios
www.lanacion.com.ar
September 15, 2025
A survey revealed what could happen in the future of the market and which units will be most affected by the mortgage loan situation.
By Candela Contreras
Mortgage credit operations began to be strongly affected. Daniel Basualdo
After a close of 2024 and a start to 2025 that positively impacted the real estate sector, thanks to the boost in UVA (Purchasing Value Unit) mortgage loans, a new phase that was imminent began in August : one in which bank-financed transactions are severely affected, and consequently, the real estate market as a whole.
In July, the city of Buenos Aires registered 6,651 deeds (a 34.5% year-over-year increase) and has accumulated 36,179 deeds so far this year (45.3% more than a year ago), the highest record in 17 years . In this regard, deeds with mortgages marked an upswing : 1,393 deeds in that month (up 519.1% year-over-year), representing 20.9% of the total. However, these numbers already have an expiration date: the rise in interest rates and the tightening of reserve requirements are beginning to close the tap on bank disbursements and, with it, the financing window that had driven much of the real estate readjustment .
However, although the August deed data is not yet available, it was revealed that the amount disbursed on mortgage loans granted last month fell 3% compared to the previous month. While this figure is not yet particularly impressive, it's worth noting that loans take between three and four months to be issued, so these figures correspond to clients who applied for them before May.
"The strongest impact will be in September, due to the increase in bank restrictions. If this is the ceiling (very possible, at least for a while), it will be well below the 2017-2018 level," said Federico González Rouco, an economist at the consulting firm Empiria. In concrete terms, US$308.9 million in mortgage loans were disbursed in the eighth month of the year .
At the same time, supply remains unchanged: according to data provided by the latest Real Estate Radar prepared by Fabián Achával Propiedades, the inventory exceeded 109,000 properties in August (seven consecutive months of year-over-year increases); while listing prices maintain an upward trend: Zonaprop and Mercado Libre have accumulated 18 consecutive months of year-over-year increases. The same study suggests that under-construction developments continue to reflect the impact of rising construction costs , while the used residential segment is positioned as the market's relative opportunity. At the same time, the used market is operating at a relative advantage: real prices that, according to ROI, are at 2006 levels, offering a purchasing opportunity for those who can afford the investment without relying exclusively on a bank.
Where will the credit brake hit hard?
The impact will be most acute in transactions with average ticket prices for used units , between US$50,000 and US$200,000 , according to the survey. This range accounts for much of the credit-dependent demand; when the financial market tightens, these transactions lose ground because access to loans becomes more expensive and more restricted .However, the used segment has a major advantage : historically low prices and a price-to-asset ratio that makes it relatively cheaper than other instruments in the Argentine economy. " The value of used assets continues to be the main driver of the real estate sector because it has become cheaper compared to all other players in the economy —stocks, bonds, services, among others," summarizes Fabián Achával, owner of the eponymous real estate company and one of those responsible for ROI.
Furthermore, the broker asserts that the market has entered what it calls a "hinge period" : August and September will reflect a lag effect—positive data from transactions initiated in previous months will continue to be seen— but the final quarter of the year will lose predictability . Traditionally, October and November witness the greatest activity; today, it will depend on the political direction, macroeconomic management, and the behavior of the dollar. If liquidity continues to be reduced, seasonality will be broken, and mortgages will increasingly lose prominence.
The impact will be felt by buyers with credit, who feel the greatest pressure, with increasingly higher rates and fewer loan options. However, cash buyers will be the ones who set prices in the short term . "Buyers with credit don't discuss prices as much as cash buyers, who negotiate more," Achával points out.
Therefore, the most affected transactions will be those with medium ticket prices that depended on easy access to loans . At the same time, the used market is operating at a relative advantage : real prices, based on ROI, are at 2006 levels, offering a purchasing opportunity for those who can afford the investment without relying exclusively on the bank.
Construction in crisis: as costs rise, operations decline
According to the latest data for August, the cost of building multifamily homes reached US$1,493/m² (representing a 23.3% year-over-year increase) and, compared to the previous month, registered a 1.5% decrease. "Today, the price gap between existing properties and units under construction is very significant, and this demonstrates both the purchasing opportunity for the former and the potential price upside in that segment," the radar explains.
Furthermore, a fact that deserves primary importance is how the upward dynamic of the stock of all properties is maintained even despite the sharp drop in the supply of apartments under construction : since January 2024, the increase was 28% in the number of listed properties, while the segment under construction fell by 83%.
"The data on used properties is perhaps one of the most relevant in the current real estate market situation due to its impact on price levels," explains ROI. "Until the real estate supply is cleared, or at least the oversupply is eliminated, the rise in used prices and the sales momentum of the development segment will be strongly affected."
Achával defines it this way: " What's left cheap is the used residential segment . Properties in the pipeline adjusted in line with inflation and in dollars." And he adds a key behavioral statistic: there's excess supply—almost 40% more than during the UVA era under Mauricio Macri's administration—which slows the speed of price adjustments in the used segment and keeps trading at moderate levels.
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