If he can stay out of trouble and scandals he can make a meaningful change in Argentina. If his sister gets caught again he needs to get rid of her. I have a feeling she will be his downfall. She can't keep her hand out of the cookie jar. Watch and see. She had almost no net worth coming into this. My hunch is she will leave with millions somehow even though her position pays very little. Still I like many of the changes.
For years, Peronism and especially Kirchnerismo kept prices and tariffs artificially suppressed. That was their model. Hold everything down through controls, subsidies, manipulation. Gas? Historically it floated between $0.75 and $1 per liter. By November 2023 it was around 30 cents USD. That’s not “cheap.” That’s distortion. And distortions always come with a bill.
Then Milei walked into a house that was basically on fire.
People say prices exploded under Milei. True — but context matters.
He inherited:
- A Central Bank with zero net dollar reserves
- And not just zero — actually $12 billion in debt
- Massive monetary emission
- A fake exchange rate system
- An economy addicted to subsidies and price caps
You can’t unwind that gently. You rip the band-aid off or the patient dies slowly.
Now, did Milei make communication mistakes? Absolutely. Did he steal money with Libra? Yes. Did his sister steal money from the social program? Yes. Probably much less than Cristina but they need to avoid that. He can write his own ticket to fame and fortune once he leaves office but they need to see the bigger picture and stop all of that.
When he talked about dollarization and called the peso “worth crap,” business leaders panicked. Many big companies hedged aggressively, pricing goods as if the peso would crash to 2,000 or 2,500 per dollar.
That crash never happened.
But guess what? Prices didn’t come back down either.
So what happened? You ended up with goods priced at a worst-case exchange rate that never materialized. That’s not Milei “raising prices.” That’s the private sector protecting itself — and then refusing to adjust downward.
Add to that a market structure where many industries are quasi-monopolies. Take tires. A tire that costs $40 in Paraguay or Chile costs $100-$140 in Argentina. Why? Limited competition. Milei opened imports to create pressure. Some local companies responded by importing… and still charging local monopoly prices.
That’s not libertarian reform failing. That’s decades of protected oligopolies resisting change.
And here’s the bigger point:
Milei spent his first year just stabilizing a Central Bank that Kirchnerismo left underwater. You cannot dollarize an economy without reserves. You need $20–30 billion. Today reserves are still negative territory, though improved from where he started. That’s why the “cepo” — capital controls — can’t fully disappear yet. You don’t remove the clamp until the patient can breathe on their own.
The high prices we see today are the delayed consequence of:
- Years of monetary abuse
-Artificially suppressed tariffs
-Subsidy addiction
-A bankrupt Central Bank
-And a concentrated corporate structure
Milei didn’t create those distortions. He exposed them.
Stabilization hurts before it heals. Quantitative tightening instead of endless money printing is painful at first — but it’s the only way out.
You can debate style. You can debate messaging. But on substance? He inherited a fiscal and monetary disaster and chose discipline over denial.
That’s not failure.
That’s reform.