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Milei’s Inflation Miracle Distorted by Obsolete Items in Index
- Thread starter Avocado
- Start date
Not sure how anyone can take the inflation basket components seriously. I thought the USA's were skewed but Argentina has in their INDEC measurement that Milei and Caputo want to keep stuff that no one has like typewriters, blank cassettes, CDs, discman, recorders, DVDs, digital cameras, fax repair, etc.
Crazy.
Crazy.
bapal
Active member
Could the reason for the delay be that all the calculations to control the economy and inflation were based on the old numbers, and if those % changes drastically with the new method, it will have a much bigger impact? Not sure.
Though sometimes simple and obvious is the best reason, and that is the government does not like what they are seeing.
Though sometimes simple and obvious is the best reason, and that is the government does not like what they are seeing.
MikeAnton
Active member
Yes the government said a while ago they had to change the components that make up true inflation as they were all outdated and it didn't prioritize high enough things like electricity and utilities and rent and transportation and getting rid of these obsolete things. Then it was supposed to have started last month. But all of a sudden Milei didn't allow them to update the inflation because it would have jumped up too high.
So now they aren't going to allow it. Sham.
Well even the Wall Street Journal is starting to question Milei's credibility plan. What he is doing is no different than Cristina manipulating data.
For the WSJ, the debate exceeds a technical issue, since according to the article, "Milei's political strength and the perceived success of his economic 'shock therapy'" depend largely on "the rapid reduction of inflation," which makes any signal that may affect the credibility of official statistics especially sensitive.
At that point, the media picked up the vision of private consultants: from Exquanti they described the official decision as a "data manipulation" and pointed out: "Lavagna helped Milei and Caputo for two years by delaying the change, paying the price of discrediting himself and the institute. He couldn't keep doing it without risking his prestige in the serious world of statistics.”
In that context, the WSJ warned: "Any erosion of confidence in Argentina's inflation data threatens not only Milei's credibility, but also Washington's commitment to his presidency as proof that radical market-driven reforms can succeed in Latin America."
The WSJ recalled that both local economists and the International Monetary Fund had been demanding since the beginning of Milei's mandate an update of the index, as part of a process of normalization of the statistical body after years of manipulation. In that sense, he cited statements by former Deputy Minister Joaquín Cottani, who had assured that the new indicator was ready to be implemented in June 2024.
www.ambito.com
For the WSJ, the debate exceeds a technical issue, since according to the article, "Milei's political strength and the perceived success of his economic 'shock therapy'" depend largely on "the rapid reduction of inflation," which makes any signal that may affect the credibility of official statistics especially sensitive.
At that point, the media picked up the vision of private consultants: from Exquanti they described the official decision as a "data manipulation" and pointed out: "Lavagna helped Milei and Caputo for two years by delaying the change, paying the price of discrediting himself and the institute. He couldn't keep doing it without risking his prestige in the serious world of statistics.”
In that context, the WSJ warned: "Any erosion of confidence in Argentina's inflation data threatens not only Milei's credibility, but also Washington's commitment to his presidency as proof that radical market-driven reforms can succeed in Latin America."
The WSJ recalled that both local economists and the International Monetary Fund had been demanding since the beginning of Milei's mandate an update of the index, as part of a process of normalization of the statistical body after years of manipulation. In that sense, he cited statements by former Deputy Minister Joaquín Cottani, who had assured that the new indicator was ready to be implemented in June 2024.
Tras la salida de Marco Lavagna del INDEC, The Wall Street Journal pone en duda la credibilidad del plan de Javier Milei
El diario estadounidense analizó la salida de Marco Lavagna, la demora en actualizar el índice de inflación y el impacto político y financiero de la decisión.
www.ambito.com
MikeAnton
Active member
I saw that food went up 4.7% in January. So much for the government's estimate that inflation in 2026 would only be 10%. 🤣 The numbers aren't believable at all.
Finance Prof
Well-known member
Here is the breakdown but honestly tough to trust the government numbers. What is clear is that inflation is heading up. 5 months in a row. Seasonal items were 15.8% more.
James Bond
Well-known member
The government will say whatever to try to calm people down. I just heard about them going back on their word for the new inflation basket. Reminds me of Cristina. Hope everyone is hanging in there.
Food inflation went up 2.5% in the first WEEK alone in February.
tn.com.ar
Los precios de los alimentos anotaron la mayor suba semanal en casi dos años: cuánto aumentaron
El alza fue impulsada por las bebidas y el pan, según un sondeo privado. El dato llega días antes de la publicación del índice de precios al consumidor de enero, que el INDEC difundirá el martes 10.
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