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Real Estate News Its growth streak continues: Neither inflation nor the dollar nor uncertainty stops the real estate market - La Nación Propiedades

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Its growth streak continues: Neither inflation nor the dollar nor uncertainty stops the real estate market - La Nación Propiedades

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October 10, 2023


Positive expectations related to a change in the Government and in the economic program are having a greater impact than the cautious attitude that often prevails during presidential elections.

By Candelaria Reinoso Taccone

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The data points towards a general trend of reactivation and the figures showed surprising results.

During the last few months, the real estate market in CABA gave signs of being in a recovery process, evidencing a change of cycle in the dynamics of the sector. Despite the complexity added to the Argentine economic panorama after the primary elections (PASO), which included the devaluation and the increase in the exchange gap and generated an increase in inflation, the real estate market has maintained surprising dynamism.

The data points towards a general trend of reactivation and the figures showed surprising results. With a total of 4,135 deeds carried out in August, a notable increase of 32.7% was observed compared to the same period of the previous year, according to the Buenos Aires College of Notaries. Furthermore, this increase represented an increase of 23.2% compared to the previous month. The surprising thing is that this growth has been sustained for 17 consecutive months, one of the longest streaks in the history of the sector.

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Despite the complexity added to the Argentine economic panorama after the primary elections (PASO), the real estate market has maintained surprising dynamism, with a total of 4,135 deeds carried out in August.

So far in 2023, a total of 23,398 deeds have been accumulated, which is equivalent to a notable increase of 17% compared to the same period last year and 7.6% above the volume achieved in 2019. However, it is important to note that, despite this vigorous performance, the number of writes remains significantly lower than the historical average of 41,000.

A striking fact is the increase in the number of deeds with a mortgage in August, which stands at 178, representing an increase of 40.2% compared to the previous year and an increase of 11.9% compared to July. However, its participation in the total real estate transactions continues to be relatively low, since these operations only constituted 4.3% of the total deeds carried out in the month.

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The number of deeds with a mortgage in August increased by 40.2% compared to the previous year.

“The growth in the number of real estate operations shows for now that the positive expectations of a change in government and economic program are weighing more than the wait and see typical of presidential elections,” said Fabián Achával -CEO of the real estate company of the same name. . In other words, people are making real estate investment decisions more actively and optimistically because of the prospect of favorable political and economic change, rather than the typical cautious stance to assess how political events will unfold.

However, it remains to be determined whether this optimism will continue beyond the results. “These could open the door to a complicated economic transition, accompanied by strong volatility in the exchange market,” he added.


Price trends​

Despite what happens after October 22, the real estate market will continue to be a key thermometer to evaluate how the economy will evolve in the coming months. If we pay attention to the published values of the properties offered, although they continue to show decreases compared to the previous year, the monthly data show positive results.

It is important to distinguish between the sales prices that are announced when a property is first listed and the final closing prices. If we talk about publication prices, it can be seen that they experienced a decrease compared to the previous year, reflecting decreases in several search portals. However, at a monthly level, a trend towards recovery is observed, marking the first time that all portals register increases in offer prices.

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Prices of new and under construction properties recorded decreases of 3.1% and 2.4% year-on-year, respectively.

According to the latest Real Estate Radar carried out by Fabián Achával, in August sales prices decreased by 4.2% compared to the previous year, according to Zonaprop data, marking 49 consecutive months of reduction. In MercadoLibre and Properati, the decrease was 3.1% and 7.2%, respectively.

On the other hand, regarding monthly changes, it is the first time that the three portals experience increases in the same month. Zonaprop recorded a 0.3% increase in monthly prices, marking two consecutive months of increases after more than two years. Properati saw a 0.8% increase, while MercadoLibre saw a 0.6% increase.

Another important fact is that changes in sales prices vary depending on the type of property. If we take into account the year-on-year variation, in August the prices of used properties decreased by 4.8% compared to the previous year, maintaining the most pronounced downward trend. On the other hand, the prices of new and under construction properties registered decreases of 3.1% and 2.4% year-on-year, respectively.

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According to monthly variations, all segments showed increases.

However, compared to July, all segments showed monthly increases: prices of properties under construction increased by 0.3%, those of new properties by 0.25%, and those of used properties by 0.20 %.

Achával warns that, in any case, what happens from one month to the next is not so relevant. “In general terms, my conclusion is that the values continue to be honest and we have to see what happens in the coming months,” he argues and adds: “If the monthly data begins to show increases for a longer period, we would have to see that it is going on".

By Candelaria Reinoso Taccone
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