If the Argentina peso is truly overvalued

[Joe]

Some great posts. I also think Argentina is too dependent on the United States right now. Trump and Milei are best friends but that will be a tremendous liability for Milei even if he manages to stay in office and the Republicans take over They will use that friendship to punish Argentina and Milei.

I don't know how anyone can feel like things are going well here. The mood is dampening. The economy outside of a few pockets is terrible. Stores and restaurants are closing, inflation is on an upswing and going up, Milei is lying about true inflation numbers, job losses are very high, prices are totally crazy for local wage levels. What do you think would happen without the IMF and USA's swap help?

The INDEC thing is a real sign how poorly things are going if they have to go to that level. There is support in the peso because of the $20 billion swap line which is assumed if things go south they can tap into. That is going to cause a floor for the peso. It is doing it's job of keeping people shorting the peso or trying to speculate against it away.

No one should believe anything now from the government. The inflation numbers are a lie. I don't even trust the Central Bank. How anyone can believe that the peso is truly valued at these levels is beyond me. This is not organic. It's all manufactured.

Look at the price of things, utilities, beef, dining out. Exploding up. My condo fee each month continues to go up. The government had to work with banks for people to get loans to pay their condo bills. That is not natural and I have never seen that in Argentina before.

I like Argentina no matter what is going on and own an apartment here and spend 6 months out of the year here. Things here can stay expensive for a while and probably why many have left.

For all of this talk about things here improving I don't see it. Besides being able to order a few things online a little cheaper, everything is still broken here. Now the government has resorted to lying like Cristina did. Put a fork in this..it is eventually going to be done.

Hit the nail on the head! Trump is helping Argentina now but if the Democrats take over in 2 years forget about it. I think it will be the perfect storm for Milei and Argentina. You won't have Bessent or Trump helping out. From what I can see Trump isn't doing too well. Many that I know that voted for him and Republicans are not happy with the direction things are taking.

The central bank might be building reserves but is anyone really seeing the benefits at all? Things seem to have gone from bad to worse besides some products coming in. I don't buy the argument that inflation has slowed down. Sure on many things like at supermarket and some other things but for the everyday person everything is much more than Milei started. And I'm not talking just a little. Electricity is up 4X, same as gas and water seems much more too. I don't pay the monthly HOA fees but I can see it in the mail as it's slipped under my door in my rental and it keeps going up too.

@Johnny posted his monthly apartment dues and just in the past year they skyrocketed. Gas is more too. Restaurants have become unaffordable. So how is the typical person benefitting? Was it like this too when the peso was $1:1? I wasn't here then. How was it then?

Besides a few sectors like oil exploration, mining, banks and financial sector there aren't too many that are doing better at least from what I can see. Some were willing to take it in the ass to see Argentina improve but not sure how good things are with Milei's family stealing from the welfare program, them lying about inflation, crypto scandal that it Is obvious he got caught.

I like a lot of what this government is doing and they need more reforms. But I think Milei went overboard on all of these increases. Too much too soon and they aren't stopping. 2X ok. 3X ouch, 4X brutal. No one wants to go back to how it was before with sky high inflation but it is impossible to keep raising prices on everything and salaries not keeping up inflation without things crashing.

I don't know how anyone can really argue that the peso should be this strong. Argentina is feeling the pain but they will eventually feel more pain.

 

[Dick]

NOTHING works in this country well. Nothing. Read my post about buying my apartment here. It was a nightmare. Pure chaos! Like nothing you can imagine. And the lack of respect here is like nothing I have seen anywhere else. How do people put up with such noise? Dogs barking, music blasting all hours of the night, people smoking pot inside. I can go on and on.

Long lines at the grocery store. Even furnishing my place has been an exercise in patience. No furniture in stock, paying a large deposit with no guarantee the place won't go out of business, difficult to find dependable service providers.

I am surprised that a city of this size in this day and age works so poorly. I will be happy when I am all done getting my property all set up and I don't have to deal with this chaos.

 

[JonJLA]

NOTHING works in this country well. Nothing. Read my post about buying my apartment here. It was a nightmare. Pure chaos! Like nothing you can imagine. And the lack of respect here is like nothing I have seen anywhere else. How do people put up with such noise? Dogs barking, music blasting all hours of the night, people smoking pot inside. I can go on and on.

Long lines at the grocery store. Even furnishing my place has been an exercise in patience. No furniture in stock, paying a large deposit with no guarantee the place won't go out of business, difficult to find dependable service providers.

I am surprised that a city of this size in this day and age works so poorly. I will be happy when I am all done getting my property all set up and I don't have to deal with this chaos.

Dick based on my experiences (I have bought 2 properties since 2003) is it's all local connections. Argentina is almost impossible for anyone going at it alone. But it is a breeze if you have local connections. I bought 2 properties without even seeing them in person before I bought them. I had them both furnished and decorated and also sold one of them remotely. I used @BuySellBA to handle all of it.

You might think you are saving money trying to do it all alone but you will pull your hair out. I have had friends that felt just like you did but the mistake they made was trying to do it all themselves. Argentina is very different than anywhere on Earth.