If the Argentina peso is truly overvalued

[TonyTigre]

If the Argentina peso is truly overvalued, why is the blue dollar rate lower than CCL, MEP, and Official? Didn't people used to say the Blue rate is the one not manipulated by the government?

At the moment of posting the rates are:
Blue 1425
CCL 1512
MEP 1475
Official 1463

FYI, Western Union tracks the CCL , not the Blue rate as many continue to mistakenly believe.

 

[Uncle Wong]

I don't think anyone knows what the real value is do they until the currency is able to float freely on the market? I don't know enough to know what I don't know but it sounds like Western Union is the way to go. Today it is at 1499.30 to $1.

 

[crypto]

I heard the fairest and truest value is the crypto rate which is about 1,492 to $1 USD today.

Dólar hoy, cotización del dólar, precio del dólar, dólar blue, precio histórico del dólar, valor del UVA | Dolarito.ar

Seguí la cotización del dólar minuto a minuto, compara cotizaciones, visualiza los valores históricos, conocé el precio del dólar, evolución del valor UVA

www.dolarito.ar

 

[Blockchain]

I don't think anyone knows what the real value is do they until the currency is able to float freely on the market? I don't know enough to know what I don't know but it sounds like Western Union is the way to go. Today it is at 1499.30 to $1.

But don't forget the WU rate you have to add on the commissions.

Sending $500 dollars down is 749,650 pesos but then it costs $15 dollars commission which gives you about 727,160 pesos which is still more than 712,500 pesos you would get going to a cueva and exchanging at the blue rate.

WU for the win.

 

[Bharat]

If the Argentina peso is truly overvalued, why is the blue dollar rate lower than CCL, MEP, and Official? Didn't people used to say the Blue rate is the one not manipulated by the government?

At the moment of posting the rates are:
Blue 1425
CCL 1512
MEP 1475
Official 1463

FYI, Western Union tracks the CCL , not the Blue rate as many continue to mistakenly believe.

I did not realize that the WU rate was so much higher than blue rate now.

@TonyTigre I am not sure I heard that blue rate is not manipulated. The opposite I heard from people that blue rate is also manipulated and government can put pressure on that rate.

 

[Nasdaq]

But don't forget the WU rate you have to add on the commissions.

Sending $500 dollars down is 749,650 pesos but then it costs $15 dollars commission which gives you about 727,160 pesos which is still more than 712,500 pesos you would get going to a cueva and exchanging at the blue rate.

WU for the win.

WU has been very effective and now that the rate is higher than blue all the more reason to use it.

Big companies, importers and funds can't use blue market. They have to buy dollars via CCL and MEP so CCL/MEP probably reflects fairer prices. Financial markets move much quicker than the street market (blue).

 

[Bharat]

WU has been very effective and now that the rate is higher than blue all the more reason to use it.

Big companies, importers and funds can't use blue market. They have to buy dollars via CCL and MEP so CCL/MEP probably reflects fairer prices. Financial markets move much quicker than the street market (blue).

Does this mean that the blue rate will follow behind and also go up soon?

 

[MikeYoung]

How can anyone think the rate is fair if the only way it stays stabile is by bail outs ever few months? Even Milei's logic seems bonkers. He says he doesn't need to build up reserves. I guess that is true if someone is willing to bail out billions more when the debt payments are due. But what happens if they are not willing to? I guess we will see what happens.

Milei explicó por qué no compra reservas: "Si el Banco Central compra dólares, sube la inflación"

"Si yo tengo rollover, ¿qué es eso de tener que acumular reservas para pagar?", afirmó.

www.lapoliticaonline.com

 

[Piranha]

How can anyone think the rate is fair if the only way it stays stabile is by bail outs ever few months? Even Milei's logic seems bonkers. He says he doesn't need to build up reserves. I guess that is true if someone is willing to bail out billions more when the debt payments are due. But what happens if they are not willing to? I guess we will see what happens.

Milei explicó por qué no compra reservas: "Si el Banco Central compra dólares, sube la inflación"

"Si yo tengo rollover, ¿qué es eso de tener que acumular reservas para pagar?", afirmó.

www.lapoliticaonline.com

Life is always easier when someone else is footing the bill or providing the $. Once that stops things become real fast.

 

[VINO]

If the Argentina peso is truly overvalued, why is the blue dollar rate lower than CCL, MEP, and Official? Didn't people used to say the Blue rate is the one not manipulated by the government?

At the moment of posting the rates are:
Blue 1425
CCL 1512
MEP 1475
Official 1463

FYI, Western Union tracks the CCL , not the Blue rate as many continue to mistakenly believe.

Tony are you arguing that the peso is not overvalued?

Everything that I am reading including from investments banks from many countries are all saying the peso is overvalued. Here is a Travel and tourism article that discusses it also.

UK Joins Greece, Turkey, Argentina, and Spain in Facing an Economic Nightmare: How Rising Costs and Currency Issues Are Killing Tourism - Travel And Tour World

UK joins Greece, Argentina, Turkey, and Spain in facing a tourism crisis due to high inflation, currency overvaluation, and rising costs. How these factors are hurting travel.

www.travelandtourworld.com

 

[Betsy Ross]

But don't forget the WU rate you have to add on the commissions.

Sending $500 dollars down is 749,650 pesos but then it costs $15 dollars commission which gives you about 727,160 pesos which is still more than 712,500 pesos you would get going to a cueva and exchanging at the blue rate.

WU for the win.

Even with the commission WU is effortless and works well.

If the Argentina peso is truly overvalued, why is the blue dollar rate lower than CCL, MEP, and Official? Didn't people used to say the Blue rate is the one not manipulated by the government?

At the moment of posting the rates are:
Blue 1425
CCL 1512
MEP 1475
Official 1463

FYI, Western Union tracks the CCL , not the Blue rate as many continue to mistakenly believe.

The blue rate will probably catch up. In all my years living in BA one rule I follow is dollars above pesos and just buy enough to last me a few months. I would probably disagree that any of these rates aren't manipulated by the government in some way. Until the peso is floating without any kind of intervention you probably won't know what fair value is.

 

[TonyTigre]

My view has always been that no one truly knows whether the peso is overvalued or not. My views have not changed since I made the comment in the below threads.

Post in thread 'Pimco Urges Milei to Let the Peso Float While ‘Times Are Good’'

Nov 8, 2025

Sometimes you have to fight fire with fire, you have to fight manipulation with manipulation. The band system is a good and necessary intermediate step. There is not a single currency in the world that isn't manipulated one way or another.

I have no idea what the exchange should be, and neither does anyone else. Clearly most who think the peso is overvalued would benefit from a weaker peso. With such conflict of interest, how can we be certain our belief that the peso is overvalued is actually true. What is that belief based on? Just by comparing the current exchange rate from...

• TonyTigre

• 

"I have no idea what the exchange should be, and neither does anyone else. Clearly most who think the peso is overvalued would benefit from a weaker peso. With such conflict of interest, how can we be certain our belief that the peso is overvalued is actually true. What is that belief based on? Just by comparing the current exchange rate from another point in history? At the point in history that you are comparing against, perhaps the peso was undervalued. Even if you can determine that point to be a truly fair valued rate, which you probably can't, are you able to compare all the events of each country between that point and now to justify whatever you want the exchange rate to be now? If you can, I would love to see that analysis."

When something becomes more expensive compared to last year, it doesn't necessarily mean it has become overvalued. When a product increases in price and the buyers' income have not increased at least proportionally, it is certainly not surprising that there is less buying. However, that in itself doesn't mean it has become overvalued. Maybe it was undervalued last year. Or maybe the circumstances have changed. Is gold overvalued? Is silver overvalued? Is bitcoin overvalued? Is Nvidia overvalued? Someone is buying and someone is selling. Do we determine whether something is overvalued based on what a majority of people think? Based on the transaction price of a specific date or a short time frame? Or based it on whether it benefits us personally or not for it to be overvalued vs. undervalued?

Two and a half to three years ago, when the Blue dollar rate was higher, people certainly thought it represented the fair value better than the other rates. Why? What has changed since? Why is the Blue dollar rate no longer higher? And why are some now saying that the Blue dollar rate is the one being manipulated? Just because it's lower than what they would like it to be?

 

[Blockchain]

Does this look normal to you @TonyTigre ? 🤣 It doesn't to me. Thou doth protest too much.

 

[oil rush]

Does this look normal to you @TonyTigre ? 🤣 It doesn't to me. Thou doth protest too much.

View attachment 10143

Definitely not normal. But then again Argentina is not a normal country. No one knows what fair value is because too many things are convoluted here. You will know what "fair value" is once the peso freely trades on the open market without any restrictions.

 

[Wally]

"I have no idea what the exchange should be, and neither does anyone else.

The blue rate will probably catch up. In all my years living in BA one rule I follow is dollars above pesos and just buy enough to last me a few months. I would probably disagree that any of these rates aren't manipulated by the government in some way. Until the peso is floating without any kind of intervention you probably won't know what fair value is.

Good rule to follow sticking with dollars vs. pesos.

Tony is right. No one knows including Milei. After all he said it would go to 600 pesos to $1 which goes to show you that no one knows. Also it can drastically swing from day to day. Argentina doesn't get more money to roll over their loan payments and you will see it quickly move so fair value one day changed to the next. Anyone's guess with so many factors in play.

 

[Cardiac Arrest]

If the Argentina peso is truly overvalued, why is the blue dollar rate lower than CCL, MEP, and Official? Didn't people used to say the Blue rate is the one not manipulated by the government?

At the moment of posting the rates are:
Blue 1425
CCL 1512
MEP 1475
Official 1463

FYI, Western Union tracks the CCL , not the Blue rate as many continue to mistakenly believe.

Problem is everyone knows the peso is overvalued. Even the IMF which has bailed out Argentina multiple times is pushing and arguing the peso is overvalued. From Bloomberg today.

https://archive.ph/oJiTC

 

[crypto]

How can anyone think the rate is fair if the only way it stays stabile is by bail outs ever few months? Even Milei's logic seems bonkers. He says he doesn't need to build up reserves. I guess that is true if someone is willing to bail out billions more when the debt payments are due. But what happens if they are not willing to? I guess we will see what happens.

Milei explicó por qué no compra reservas: "Si el Banco Central compra dólares, sube la inflación"

"Si yo tengo rollover, ¿qué es eso de tener que acumular reservas para pagar?", afirmó.

www.lapoliticaonline.com

The government will do or say anything to change the narrative. How can last year they brag about buying a record amount of reserves and then change to not being able to buy reserves due to lack of market depth? Story sure changed quickly.