Argentina Blue Dollar Goes up to 1,220 pesos to $1 USD

[BuySellBA]

Argentina Blue Dollar Goes up to 1,220 pesos to $1 USD

BuySellBA forecasted WEEKS ago that we will hit the upper band of the 1,400 pesos to $1 USD before the election. And probably much sooner before that. We told you that big money would exit their carry trade positions. How did we know? We advise them on Argentina. Everyone comes to us for advice on Argentina. The old adage is true for Argentina. Just wait and things will flip again.


@BuySellBA - Perfectly timing Argentina since 2002.

 

[JonJLA]

I read your posts on X every day. You and BowTiedMara have the best content on Buenos Aires.

https://x.com/BuySellBA

 

[TonyTigre]

The crazy thing is that even if it gets to 1,400 by election day, it might not even make up for the price inflation in ARS despite the lower inflation rate this year. Therefore, any expat or future expats with income in USD, especially those on fixed income, better be prepared to continue to pay more in USD. The price increases won't be as bad as last year but it's a a tough baseline to get used to after years of cheap prices for those who were able to take advantage of the Blue Dollar rates.

 

[earlyretirement]

The crazy thing is that even if it gets to 1,400 by election day, it might not even make up for the price inflation in ARS despite the lower inflation rate this year. Therefore, any expat or future expats with income in USD, especially those on fixed income, better be prepared to continue to pay more in USD. The price increases won't be as bad as last year but it's a a tough baseline to get used to after years of cheap prices for those who were able to take advantage of the Blue Dollar rates.

Absolutely 100% correct as usual @TonyTigre. Salaries aren't keeping up with inflation now. Totally agree that inflation shouldn't be as bad as before but the blue dollar should jump up. How much I don't know but if blue jumps, inflation will also jump up and prices are already high. We need a deflation of prices.

 

[Uncle Wong]

I couldn't believe how expensive some things are now when I was in BA a few weeks ago. I see the Central Bank reserves aren't meaningfully going up.

 

[nikad]

I saw this. Looks like the peso is going to get weaker after all before the elections. It is remarkable to me how some people are calling these things ahead of time.

Se frenó el proceso de apreciación del tipo de cambio y el dólar estaría más presionado hasta las elecciones

Desde que empezó la flotación dentro de un sistema de bandas, la economía argentina dejó de encarecerse en dólares. La baja de la inflación fue clave, aunque en junio repuntaría levemente tras el 1,5% del mes pasado. Buena expectativa de los inversores de cara al segundo semestre

www.infobae.com

 

[ElQueso]

The crazy thing is that even if it gets to 1,400 by election day, it might not even make up for the price inflation in ARS despite the lower inflation rate this year. Therefore, any expat or future expats with income in USD, especially those on fixed income, better be prepared to continue to pay more in USD. The price increases won't be as bad as last year but it's a a tough baseline to get used to after years of cheap prices for those who were able to take advantage of the Blue Dollar rates.

This is a great point. I keep thinking things won't get more expensive in BA but they do. I just went to the Chino and get a few things and it was $100 bucks!

 

[Esposas]

This is a great point. I keep thinking things won't get more expensive in BA but they do. I just went to the Chino and get a few things and it was $100 bucks!

Someone posted a jar of tomato sauce the other day for $12 USD per jar. I can't remember if this was on this forum?

 

[Betsy Ross]

It will be interesting to see what the exchange rate does before the elections.

Dólar hoy, cotización del dólar, precio del dólar, dólar blue, precio histórico del dólar, valor del UVA | Dolarito.ar

Seguí la cotización del dólar minuto a minuto, compara cotizaciones, visualiza los valores históricos, conocé el precio del dólar, evolución del valor UVA

www.dolarito.ar

 

[Uncle Wong]

Looks like the peso will keep falling!

https://buenosairesherald.com/economics/dollar-peso/argentine-peso-weakens-after-jp-morgan-report-and-ypf-fallout

 

[Blockchain]

It will be interesting to see what the exchange rate does before the elections.

Dólar hoy, cotización del dólar, precio del dólar, dólar blue, precio histórico del dólar, valor del UVA | Dolarito.ar

Seguí la cotización del dólar minuto a minuto, compara cotizaciones, visualiza los valores históricos, conocé el precio del dólar, evolución del valor UVA

www.dolarito.ar

Yep I saw another article the other day. It sounds like last one out turn off the lights.

Peso weakens as seasonal bonus stokes dollar demand

Peso weakens to 1,243 pesos per dollar during trading as seasonal demand for dollars picks up.

www.batimes.com.ar

 

[James Bond]

FYI.

 

[CraigM]

FYI.

It certainly sounds like the Peso is overvalued from all the stories here, but currencies can stay mispriced for a long time and futures markets are not great predictors that far out. When I was there last August the blue dollar was near 1400 and the futures market (not to mention every single forecast) was predicting it to weaken further, but a year later it's back to 1200,

 

[earlyretirement]

It certainly sounds like the Peso is overvalued from all the stories here, but currencies can stay mispriced for a long time and futures markets are not great predictors that far out. When I was there last August the blue dollar was near 1400 and the futures market (not to mention every single forecast) was predicting it to weaken further, but a year later it's back to 1200,

Very true Craig. Markets can stay irrationally a long time. Look at the 10 years stretch when the peso and the USD was artificially manipulated at a $1 USD to 1 Peso level. But then we know what happened after that. It crashed. (It CRASHED hard). Not saying that is the same this time around but ain't no way prices are rational or fair on many items in Buenos Aires considering salary levels. Keep in mind I know taxi drivers that were earning upwards of $40,000 USD back during that 10 year period. That isn't happening now.

I agree about the Futures market but I don't just follow futures. I follow the concept of basic common sense. My multi-millionaire friends and neighbors come to Buenos Aires and if THEY tell me it's expensive dining out for them. Guess what? LOL. Poor locals.

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Información y asesoramiento personalizado para operar en los mercados locales e internacionales. Más de 60 años de trayectoria. Agente BYMA, MAE, ROFEX y MAV. Operamos acciones, bonos, opciones, letras, futuros de dólar, FCE y cheques de pago diferido.

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[Finance Prof]

It certainly sounds like the Peso is overvalued from all the stories here, but currencies can stay mispriced for a long time and futures markets are not great predictors that far out. When I was there last August the blue dollar was near 1400 and the futures market (not to mention every single forecast) was predicting it to weaken further, but a year later it's back to 1200,

Futures aren't everything but they are certainly a good leading indicator of what could go on. In Argentina things like $20 Billion bailouts or continual bail outs by the USA are hard to factor into what might happen. There is big money at stake here with finance and most of these people will protect one another at all costs. Makes it difficult to predict exchange rate in Argentina. One thing is for sure, no way Argentine peso is worth what it is trading at!

 

[Uncle Wong]

I agree about the Futures market but I don't just follow futures. I follow the concept of basic common sense. My multi-millionaire friends and neighbors come to Buenos Aires and if THEY tell me it's expensive dining out for them. Guess what? LOL. Poor locals.

I am shocked how low the salaries are in Argentina. I am not sure how they do it!