Recent content by CraigM

I don't think it was a bait and switch. The US committed swap lines in case they were needed, they didn't say $20 billion was coming in the mail tomorrow. The election went their way so at least for now the US can move on. Which is good because frankly there are far more important issues to...

It was similar with the last US election. Media and consultants kept telling us that Harris was going to win in a landslide because only sub-humans supported Trump. What surprised even the consultants though was that a lot of voters in the middle didn't actually support Trump (or couldn't...

I don't know about online predictions but in this forum it was very negative, certainly had this outsider believing Milei could lose. Only Piranha said he would win and I suspect the reasoning was accurate as well (I doubt the US had much to do with it).

I would ask Piranha, only one who called it correctly in this forum. Everyone else said Milei was going to lose.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/5575437-in-argentina-a-win-for-economic-democracy-a-loss-for-peronist-kleptocracy/

I believe they call it "massaging outcomes", fraud is such a strong word :)

Kudos on your prediction. Many on here were saying the opposite but you were exactly correct.

That is a fascinating project, I rode past it on my bike every day I was there. Hope they sort out all the issues.

"Washington has an interest in seeing Milei succeed not only because it will stabilize Argentina, but also because his success will serve as a “beacon” to other countries on the continent. 'We do not want another failed or China-led state in Latin America,' Bessent said." That is as good a take...

I think this excerpt from CoinDesk says it all...

If it's a Peronist then perhaps the US follows China's playbook, bribe govt officials and throw in a few goodies like bridges and schools for the masses.

I have said over and over that Milei's scamming is not okay at all - you cannot ask citizens to sacrifice while you're stealing from everyone and everything. But I still think the Kirchner's were much worse, and you have defended them over and over. Massive currency depreciation may be great...

Cmon Betsy, don't talk about Larry like that :)

For the US it seems a case of right guy/right time. I've been plenty critical of Biden but to be fair he couldn't have done this with Kirchner in office. He could have taken other initiatives, but nothing so direct as this.

I've said this before but if Milei wins, the US has a loyal ally in South America which they haven't had for a really long time. If he loses, support ends and they dump whatever pesos they own which probably isn't much. Either way it won't cost that much, and they need to find ways to...