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Currency volatility: How the dollar impacts the real estate market and what signals buyers look for - Ambito Financiero
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www.ambito.com
September 23, 2025
By Jose Luis Cieri
Real estate agents and analysts warn about the uncertainty generated by the rise of the US currency, what's happening to demand, and what's expected.
The rise of the dollar creates uncertainty. The sector was doing well, but the mortgage pause and the rise in the official currency's exchange rate are creating noise. Depositphotos
The dollar has once again taken center stage . Last week, the retail dollar surpassed $1.520, and the Central Bank had to part with nearly $380 million in a single day to stem the rise in the wholesale market, where the currency closed at $1.475, just below the ceiling of the exchange rate band. With a weekly rise of 3% and a monthly increase of 9.8%, the foreign currency is adding pressure to a scenario already marked by economic and political uncertainty.
The dollar's movement impacts all sectors, but in the real estate market, the impact is usually immediate on expectations , though not necessarily on prices. Experience shows that buyers adjust their behavior in the face of volatility, and that sellers prefer to wait rather than change prices in times of uncertainty.
However, he acknowledged that volatility is already impacting market dynamics: "It's resulting in a cooling off, as consumers are acting cautiously and even postponing purchasing decisions until more certain conditions emerge, with the October elections as their first prospect."
For Turale, the key lies in how political and economic conditions are readjusted. In a scenario where inflation, the exchange rate, and interest rates are moving rapidly, "the real estate sector demands clear rules and predictability," he stated.
From Salguero Properties, Tobías Fanelli agreed that sales prices aren't changing immediately, although he warned that the impact could be felt later. "We'll probably see the effect in the coming months, reaching a plateau again. Owners who have already listed their properties are looking to maintain their value, but those who were hesitant may decide to sell because they know they're receiving cash," he explained.
Regarding demand, Fanelli emphasized that "the decline has been recorded in recent weeks and even more abruptly in recent days. Those who have dollars think they can rise further and don't want to part with it, while those who were considering a loan must reevaluate because they are losing purchasing power in pesos. This generates doubts and delays decision-making."
Along these lines, Turale explained that "current transactions were not affected, as buyers generally already had the dollars to complete the transaction. Therefore, we won't see an immediate drop in the volume of deeds. The current decline will be reflected in the coming months until conditions are in place for consumers to regain predictability."
Even if the dollar rises, some voices in the sector maintain that this will not affect the purchase and sale values.
Experience from other episodes of exchange rate volatility shows that adjustment doesn't happen instantly. The market typically takes time to find a new equilibrium, while buyers and sellers measure their steps more cautiously.
Regarding demand, he stated that "dollar holders believe that the increase gives them greater purchasing power, but experience shows that this is not the case. The devaluation would have to be much greater for that to happen, which is not happening. That's why those interested continue to ask and counteroffer, but without a general downward response."
Recent memory offers similar precedents: in previous dollar surges, the published values did not drop significantly, but the buying and selling dynamic did slow down. Buyers with dollars in hand try to negotiate down, while sellers prefer to wait. This tension often results in months of lower activity until the market assimilates the new exchange rate level.
At the same time, rising construction costs—which climbed more than 120% year-over-year—had already raised benchmark prices for new homes and squeezed developers' margins. A further rise in the dollar without a corresponding increase in revenue creates more uncertainty, especially in the design of new projects.
Gómez Picasso concluded with a perspective that integrates the current and structural aspects: "The dollar must keep pace with inflation to avoid negatively impacting the construction sector or the mortgage market. Beyond that, the market needs less bureaucracy and a more flexible labor framework to sustain its dynamism."
www.buysellba.com
Source:
Volatilidad cambiaria: cómo impacta el dólar en el mercado inmobiliario y qué señales miran los compradores
Inmobiliarias y analistas advierten sobre la incertidumbre que genera el alza de la moneda estadounidense, qué ocurre con la demanda y qué se espera.
www.ambito.com
September 23, 2025
By Jose Luis Cieri
Real estate agents and analysts warn about the uncertainty generated by the rise of the US currency, what's happening to demand, and what's expected.
The rise of the dollar creates uncertainty. The sector was doing well, but the mortgage pause and the rise in the official currency's exchange rate are creating noise. Depositphotos
The dollar has once again taken center stage . Last week, the retail dollar surpassed $1.520, and the Central Bank had to part with nearly $380 million in a single day to stem the rise in the wholesale market, where the currency closed at $1.475, just below the ceiling of the exchange rate band. With a weekly rise of 3% and a monthly increase of 9.8%, the foreign currency is adding pressure to a scenario already marked by economic and political uncertainty.
The dollar's movement impacts all sectors, but in the real estate market, the impact is usually immediate on expectations , though not necessarily on prices. Experience shows that buyers adjust their behavior in the face of volatility, and that sellers prefer to wait rather than change prices in times of uncertainty.
The result is often a slowdown in the volume of inquiries and transactions, even if already closed deals are finalized at notary offices.Expectations and purchase prices
In this context, Edgardo Turale , a lawyer, real estate broker, and property consultant for real estate agencies and condominium managers, stated that "at the moment, we haven't noticed any price movements; ongoing transactions are being completed as agreed, and sellers, especially developers, continue to prioritize sales and having cash available, so the cost increase has not yet been passed on."However, he acknowledged that volatility is already impacting market dynamics: "It's resulting in a cooling off, as consumers are acting cautiously and even postponing purchasing decisions until more certain conditions emerge, with the October elections as their first prospect."
For Turale, the key lies in how political and economic conditions are readjusted. In a scenario where inflation, the exchange rate, and interest rates are moving rapidly, "the real estate sector demands clear rules and predictability," he stated.
Demand on hold and the role of credits
The mortgage lending situation appears to be one of the most sensitive areas . Turale noted that "the movement of the dollar has a significant impact on mortgage lending. While it has never been a strong point in our market, it has recently gained importance as a lever for operations."From Salguero Properties, Tobías Fanelli agreed that sales prices aren't changing immediately, although he warned that the impact could be felt later. "We'll probably see the effect in the coming months, reaching a plateau again. Owners who have already listed their properties are looking to maintain their value, but those who were hesitant may decide to sell because they know they're receiving cash," he explained.
Regarding demand, Fanelli emphasized that "the decline has been recorded in recent weeks and even more abruptly in recent days. Those who have dollars think they can rise further and don't want to part with it, while those who were considering a loan must reevaluate because they are losing purchasing power in pesos. This generates doubts and delays decision-making."
Operations in progress and writing
Fanelli added that cash transactions are unlikely to experience declines, but warned that financing transactions could become complicated. "The borrower needs more pesos to reach the same dollar amount, and if they don't have additional margin, the transaction could fall through," he said.Along these lines, Turale explained that "current transactions were not affected, as buyers generally already had the dollars to complete the transaction. Therefore, we won't see an immediate drop in the volume of deeds. The current decline will be reflected in the coming months until conditions are in place for consumers to regain predictability."
Even if the dollar rises, some voices in the sector maintain that this will not affect the purchase and sale values.
Experience from other episodes of exchange rate volatility shows that adjustment doesn't happen instantly. The market typically takes time to find a new equilibrium, while buyers and sellers measure their steps more cautiously.
Structural view and background
For Germán Gómez Picasso of Reporte Inmobiliario, the recent increase shouldn't directly change values. "These days' increase shouldn't impact real estate values. The dollar has been lagging for more than a year, and both supply and demand expected an increase sooner or later," he stated.Regarding demand, he stated that "dollar holders believe that the increase gives them greater purchasing power, but experience shows that this is not the case. The devaluation would have to be much greater for that to happen, which is not happening. That's why those interested continue to ask and counteroffer, but without a general downward response."
Recent memory offers similar precedents: in previous dollar surges, the published values did not drop significantly, but the buying and selling dynamic did slow down. Buyers with dollars in hand try to negotiate down, while sellers prefer to wait. This tension often results in months of lower activity until the market assimilates the new exchange rate level.
Conditions necessary to sustain demand
Fanelli considered that "the conditions that could sustain the recovery are low inflation, a stable dollar, and reasonable rates at lending banks. Without these, it will be very difficult to maintain consumer demand." Turale, meanwhile, emphasized that "an increase in per capita income is crucial to guarantee access to mortgage credit and boost the sector."At the same time, rising construction costs—which climbed more than 120% year-over-year—had already raised benchmark prices for new homes and squeezed developers' margins. A further rise in the dollar without a corresponding increase in revenue creates more uncertainty, especially in the design of new projects.
Gómez Picasso concluded with a perspective that integrates the current and structural aspects: "The dollar must keep pace with inflation to avoid negatively impacting the construction sector or the mortgage market. Beyond that, the market needs less bureaucracy and a more flexible labor framework to sustain its dynamism."
www.buysellba.com
